PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Newcastle United 2–1 Brentford · Premier League

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Newcastle United won 2–1.

Shots
2112
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.431.63
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Newcastle United beat Brentford 2–1. Recorded in this match (Newcastle United – Brentford): shots 21–12, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.43–1.63, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsNewcastle United · Brentford11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNewcastle UnitedBrentfordBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match11.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against12.9 shots/match17.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots12 shotsNewcastle United 21 shots, Brentford 12 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsNewcastle United 4 shots, Brentford 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.43 xG1.63 xGNewcastle United 1.43 xG, Brentford 1.63 xG
  • Possession48%52%Newcastle United 48%, Brentford 52%
  • Corners4 corners5 cornersNewcastle United 4 corners, Brentford 5 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls12 foulsNewcastle United 12 fouls, Brentford 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Sandro Tonali · Newcastle United · 74′ · 0.00 xG · goalJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFabian Schär · Newcastle United · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCallum Wilson · Newcastle United · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoelinton · Newcastle United · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKevin Schade · Brentford · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 36′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 47′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSandro Tonali · Newcastle United · 29′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 62′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 62′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoe Willock · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKevin Schade · Brentford · 29′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJoelinton · Newcastle United · 31′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 22′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCallum Wilson · Newcastle United · 86′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMikkel Damsgaard · Brentford · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 36′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 2′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedEthan Pinnock · Brentford · 68′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 45′ · 0.25 xG · goalBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 66′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Newcastle United: 21 shots, 4 on target, 1.28 xG. Brentford: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Alexander Isak · Newcastle United · 45′Sandro Tonali · Newcastle United · 74′Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 1.28 xG · Brentford 1.64 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Newcastle United
0Draws
1Brentford
Brentford — Newcastle United · Premier League4–2
Brentford — Newcastle United · Premier League2–4
Newcastle United — Brentford · Premier League1–0
Brentford — Newcastle United · Premier League1–2
Newcastle United — Brentford · Premier League5–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Newcastle United favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Brentford in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Newcastle United29 matchesBrentford30 matches
1.69 goals/matchGoals scored29/301.7 goals/match
1.34 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/301.57 goals/match
1.65 xG/match ▲Expected goals29/301.57 xG/match
13.2 shots/match ▲Shots29/3011.6 shots/match
4.31 shots/matchShots on target29/30▲ 4.8 shots/match
50% ●Possession29/3048.2%
5.52 corners/match ●Corners29/304.5 corners/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls29/307.97 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 2 Apr 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNewcastle UnitedBrentford
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headNewcastle United — Brentford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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