PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Wed, 2 Apr 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastle UnitedBrentford
Shots21 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.43 xG/match1.63 xG/match▲
Possession48%52%●
Corners4 corners/match5 corners/match●
Fouls12 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Sandro Tonali · Newcastle United · 74′ · 0.00 xG · goalJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFabian Schär · Newcastle United · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCallum Wilson · Newcastle United · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoelinton · Newcastle United · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKevin Schade · Brentford · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 36′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 47′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSandro Tonali · Newcastle United · 29′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 62′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 62′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoe Willock · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKevin Schade · Brentford · 29′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJoelinton · Newcastle United · 31′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 22′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCallum Wilson · Newcastle United · 86′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMikkel Damsgaard · Brentford · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 36′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 2′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedEthan Pinnock · Brentford · 68′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 45′ · 0.25 xG · goalBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 66′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Newcastle United: 21 shots, 4 on target, 1.28 xG. Brentford: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Alexander Isak · Newcastle United · 45′Sandro Tonali · Newcastle United · 74′Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 1.28 xG · Brentford 1.64 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsNewcastle United · Brentford11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNewcastle UnitedBrentfordBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match11.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against12.9 shots/match17.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Newcastle United
0Draws
1Brentford
Brentford — Newcastle United · Premier League4–2
Brentford — Newcastle United · Premier League2–4
Newcastle United — Brentford · Premier League1–0
Brentford — Newcastle United · Premier League1–2
Newcastle United — Brentford · Premier League5–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 1 · 3 too close

1.69 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/301.7 goals/match
1.34 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/301.57 goals/match
1.65 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 29/301.57 xG/match
1.3 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 29/301.54 xG/match
13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/3011.6 shots/match
12.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/3017.4 shots/match
4.31 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/30▲4.8 shots/match
4.45 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/305.63 shots/match
50%●Possessionseason · 29/3048.2%
5.52 corners/match●Cornersseason · 29/304.5 corners/match
5.24 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/306.43 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/307.97 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/3017%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 29/3077%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United47.5
Brentford42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United50.8
Brentford55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United50.8
Brentford17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United57.5
Brentford22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United22.5
Brentford7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United62.5
Brentford37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United42.5
Brentford34.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United29 matchesBrentford30 matches
1.69 goals/matchGoals scored29/301.7 goals/match
1.34 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/301.57 goals/match
1.65 xG/match▲Expected goals29/301.57 xG/match
13.2 shots/match▲Shots29/3011.6 shots/match
4.31 shots/matchShots on target29/30▲4.8 shots/match
50%●Possession29/3048.2%
5.52 corners/match●Corners29/304.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.6 fouls/matchFouls29/307.97 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United14 matchesBrentford15 matches
1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored14/151.4 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed14/151.33 goals/match
1.74 xG/match▲Expected goals14/151.33 xG/match
14.8 shots/match▲Shots14/1510.1 shots/match
4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target14/154.13 shots/match
48.3%●Possession14/1545.2%
5.71 corners/match●Corners14/153.87 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFouls14/159 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

23 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/118.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples29 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 2 Apr 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastle UnitedBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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