Premier League · 2024Sat, 5 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Crystal Palace

LWWWD

2–1Full-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

WWWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Crystal Palace	Brighton & Hove Albion
Shots	8 shots/match	11 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.6 xG/match	1 xG/match▲
Possession	38%	62%●
Corners	2 corners/match	4 corners/match●
Fouls	12 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Crystal Palace: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.58 xG. Brighton & Hove Albion: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.99 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Crystal Palace 0.58 xG · Brighton & Hove Albion 0.99 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace, Brighton & Hove Albion. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.3 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.3 goals/match	1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace, Brighton & Hove Albion.

2.8 days▲Rest daysCrystal Palace · Brighton & Hove Albion2.8 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Crystal Palace	Brighton & Hove Albion	Baseline
Rest days	2.8 days	2.8 days	—
Matches last 14 days	1 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.1%PossessionCrystal Palace · Brighton & Hove Albion●52.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Crystal Palace	Brighton & Hove Albion	Baseline
Possession	44.1%	52.5%	50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Crystal Palace

2Draws

2Brighton & Hove Albion

15 Dec 2024Brighton & Hove Albion — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–3

3 Feb 2024Brighton & Hove Albion — Crystal Palace · Premier League4–1

21 Dec 2023Crystal Palace — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–1

15 Mar 2023Brighton & Hove Albion — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–0

11 Feb 2023Crystal Palace — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 3 · 7 too close

1.3 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/31▲1.58 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/311.52 goals/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 30/311.48 xG/match

1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 30/311.39 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/3113.7 shots/match

12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/31▲10.9 shots/match

4.87 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/314.77 shots/match

3.93 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/313.74 shots/match

44.1%Possessionseason · 30/31●52.5%

4.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/31●4.87 corners/match

5.77 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/31▲5 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3111.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3123%

80%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3184%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace17.5

Brighton & Hove Albion62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace55.8

Brighton & Hove Albion59.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace74.2

Brighton & Hove Albion65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace87.5

Brighton & Hove Albion52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace32.5

Brighton & Hove Albion82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace42.5

Brighton & Hove Albion47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace52.5

Brighton & Hove Albion63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Crystal Palace30 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion31 matches

1.3 goals/matchGoals scored30/31▲1.58 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/311.52 goals/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goals30/311.48 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShots30/3113.7 shots/match

4.87 shots/matchShots on target30/314.77 shots/match

44.1%Possession30/31●52.5%

4.57 corners/matchCorners30/31●4.87 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls30/3111.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Crystal Palace16 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion16 matches

1.19 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.75 goals/match

1.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.75 goals/match

1.66 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161.46 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shots16/1612.6 shots/match

4.94 shots/matchShots on target16/165.06 shots/match

43.8%Possession16/16●52.2%

4.69 corners/matchCorners16/164.69 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.8 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples30 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4