PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sat, 5 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricIpswich TownWolverhampton
Shots6 shots/match22 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.8 xG/match2.71 xG/match▲
Possession44%56%●
Corners4 corners/match8 corners/match●
Fouls12 fouls/match16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Sam Morsy · Ipswich Town · 29′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMarshall Munetsi · Wolverhampton · 67′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoão Gomes · Wolverhampton · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedConor Townsend · Ipswich Town · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDara O'Shea · Ipswich Town · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoão Gomes · Wolverhampton · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatt Doherty · Wolverhampton · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRayan Aït-Nouri · Wolverhampton · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedToti Gomes · Wolverhampton · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoão Gomes · Wolverhampton · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRayan Aït-Nouri · Wolverhampton · 71′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPablo Sarabia · Wolverhampton · 73′ · 0.05 xG · goalJoão Gomes · Wolverhampton · 12′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJaden Philogene-Bidace · Ipswich Town · 89′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNélson Semedo · Wolverhampton · 48′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolverhampton · 6′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedToti Gomes · Wolverhampton · 11′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMarshall Munetsi · Wolverhampton · 48′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMarshall Munetsi · Wolverhampton · 53′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJørgen Strand Larsen · Wolverhampton · 76′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRayan Aït-Nouri · Wolverhampton · 60′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRayan Aït-Nouri · Wolverhampton · 84′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedEmmanuel Agbadou · Wolverhampton · 39′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDara O'Shea · Ipswich Town · 58′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJørgen Strand Larsen · Wolverhampton · 11′ · 0.18 xG · on targetToti Gomes · Wolverhampton · 21′ · 0.38 xG · on targetLiam Delap · Ipswich Town · 16′ · 0.49 xG · goalJørgen Strand Larsen · Wolverhampton · 84′ · 0.77 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Ipswich Town: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.81 xG. Wolverhampton: 22 shots, 7 on target, 2.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Liam Delap · Ipswich Town · 16′Pablo Sarabia · Wolverhampton · 73′Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolverhampton · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Ipswich Town 0.81 xG · Wolverhampton 2.71 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Ipswich Town, Wolverhampton. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Ipswich Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Ipswich Town, Wolverhampton.

2.8 days▲Rest daysIpswich Town · Wolverhampton3.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricIpswich TownWolverhamptonBaseline
Rest days2.8 days3.8 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches1 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Ipswich Town have a visible home split

moderate

Ipswich Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.61 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match9.61 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Ipswich Town
0Draws
0Wolverhampton
Wolverhampton — Ipswich Town · Premier League1–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Ipswich Town favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Wolverhampton in 10 · 3 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/31▲1.39 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲1.9 goals/match
0.94 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 31/31▲1.16 xG/match
2.02 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 31/31▲1.58 xG/match
9.61 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/31▲11.2 shots/match
15.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/31▲12.9 shots/match
3.48 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/31▲4.32 shots/match
5.74 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/31▲4.68 shots/match
41.2%Possessionseason · 31/31●47.9%
4.03 corners/match●Cornersseason · 31/313.61 corners/match
6.48 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/316.16 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3113.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/31▲19%
68%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/31▲84%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Ipswich Town12.5
Wolverhampton37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Ipswich Town12.5
Wolverhampton31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Ipswich Town15.8
Wolverhampton32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Ipswich Town12.5
Wolverhampton17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town72.5
Wolverhampton92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Ipswich Town12.5
Wolverhampton7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Ipswich Town27.5
Wolverhampton39.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Ipswich Town31 matchesWolverhampton31 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲1.39 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲1.9 goals/match
0.94 xG/matchExpected goals31/31▲1.16 xG/match
9.61 shots/matchShots31/31▲11.2 shots/match
3.48 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲4.32 shots/match
41.2%Possession31/31●47.9%
4.03 corners/match●Corners31/313.61 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFouls31/3113.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Ipswich Town16 matchesWolverhampton16 matches
0.81 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.5 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲2 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲1.16 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots16/16▲12.1 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲4.5 shots/match
44.3%Possession16/16●47.9%
4.31 corners/match●Corners16/163.63 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFouls16/1613.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.8 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsIpswich TownWolverhampton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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