PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Wed, 2 Apr 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthIpswich Town
Shots24 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.87 xG/match▲1.17 xG/match
Possession64%●36%
Corners8 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Evanilson · Bournemouth · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Ipswich Town · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 78′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMiloš Kerkez · Bournemouth · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBen Johnson · Ipswich Town · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavid Brooks · Bournemouth · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Ipswich Town · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlex Scott · Bournemouth · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 32′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAlex Scott · Bournemouth · 46′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRyan Christie · Bournemouth · 49′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDara O'Shea · Ipswich Town · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJack Taylor · Ipswich Town · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEvanilson · Bournemouth · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLewis Cook · Bournemouth · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 15′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlex Scott · Bournemouth · 33′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Ipswich Town · 24′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJens-Lys Cajuste · Ipswich Town · 43′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 56′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAlex Scott · Bournemouth · 33′ · 0.12 xG · on targetDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 56′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedBen Johnson · Ipswich Town · 38′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedLewis Cook · Bournemouth · 67′ · 0.23 xG · on targetDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedLiam Delap · Ipswich Town · 60′ · 0.26 xG · goalNathan Broadhead · Ipswich Town · 34′ · 0.45 xG · goalEvanilson · Bournemouth · 67′ · 0.70 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bournemouth: 24 shots, 7 on target, 2.06 xG. Ipswich Town: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.17 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Evanilson · Bournemouth · 67′Nathan Broadhead · Ipswich Town · 34′Liam Delap · Ipswich Town · 60′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 2.06 xG · Ipswich Town 1.17 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Ipswich Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Ipswich Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bournemouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.1 shots/match▲ShotsBournemouth · Ipswich Town9.73 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthIpswich TownBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match9.73 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match15.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Ipswich Town have a visible away split

moderate

Ipswich Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.93 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season9.73 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.93 shots/match9.73 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bournemouth
0Draws
0Ipswich Town
Ipswich Town — Bournemouth · Premier League1–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Ipswich Town in 0 · 2 too close

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/301 goals/match
1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/302.1 goals/match
1.85 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 30/300.95 xG/match
1.34 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 30/302 xG/match
16.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/309.73 shots/match
13.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3015.3 shots/match
5.73 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/303.53 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/305.7 shots/match
47.6%●Possessionseason · 30/3041.1%
6.17 corners/match●Cornersseason · 30/304.03 corners/match
5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/306.43 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3011.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/307%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3067%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth32.5
Ipswich Town12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth75.8
Ipswich Town12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth44.2
Ipswich Town15.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth97.5
Ipswich Town17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth97.5
Ipswich Town72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth72.5
Ipswich Town12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth85
Ipswich Town27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth30 matchesIpswich Town30 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored30/301 goals/match
1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/302.1 goals/match
1.85 xG/match▲Expected goals30/300.95 xG/match
16.1 shots/match▲Shots30/309.73 shots/match
5.73 shots/match▲Shots on target30/303.53 shots/match
47.6%●Possession30/3041.1%
6.17 corners/match●Corners30/304.03 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.7 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth15 matchesIpswich Town15 matches
1.27 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.2 goals/match
0.93 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.93 goals/match
1.82 xG/match▲Expected goals15/150.96 xG/match
17.3 shots/match▲Shots15/157.93 shots/match
5.93 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.2 shots/match
47.7%●Possession15/1537.9%
6.13 corners/match●Corners15/153.73 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.9 fouls/matchFouls15/1512.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

18.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/118.2 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 2 Apr 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthIpswich Town
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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