Premier League · 2024Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester City

WLDWD

5–2Full-time recap

Crystal Palace

WWWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Crystal Palace
Shots	21 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	3.81 xG/match▲	1.82 xG/match
Possession	68%●	32%
Corners	1 corners/match	4 corners/match●
Fouls	10 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester City: 21 shots, 9 on target, 3.92 xG. Crystal Palace: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.77 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 3.92 xG · Crystal Palace 1.77 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.32 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.32 goals/match	1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.3%●PossessionManchester City · Crystal Palace43.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Crystal Palace	Baseline
Possession	61.3%	43.7%	49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Manchester City

2Draws

0Crystal Palace

7 Dec 2024Crystal Palace — Manchester City · Premier League2–2

6 Apr 2024Crystal Palace — Manchester City · Premier League2–4

16 Dec 2023Manchester City — Crystal Palace · Premier League2–2

11 Mar 2023Crystal Palace — Manchester City · Premier League0–1

27 Aug 2022Manchester City — Crystal Palace · Premier League4–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 0 · 6 too close

1.94 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/311.32 goals/match

1.31 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/311.29 goals/match

1.83 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 32/311.52 xG/match

1.34 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 32/311.36 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 32/3113.5 shots/match

9.72 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 32/3112.7 shots/match

5.84 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 32/314.81 shots/match

3.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 32/314.1 shots/match

61.3%●Possessionseason · 32/3143.7%

6.56 corners/match●Cornersseason · 32/314.55 corners/match

3.47 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/315.61 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

7.66 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3110.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

28%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/3129%

84%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3181%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Crystal Palace17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City92.5

Crystal Palace52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City77.5

Crystal Palace65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City52.5

Crystal Palace87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City2.5

Crystal Palace32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City92.5

Crystal Palace42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City70

Crystal Palace50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City32 matchesCrystal Palace31 matches

1.94 goals/match▲Goals scored32/311.32 goals/match

1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed32/311.29 goals/match

1.83 xG/match▲Expected goals32/311.52 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots32/3113.5 shots/match

5.84 shots/match▲Shots on target32/314.81 shots/match

61.3%●Possession32/3143.7%

6.56 corners/match●Corners32/314.55 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.66 fouls/matchFouls32/3110.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City16 matchesCrystal Palace15 matches

2.31 goals/match▲Goals scored16/151.47 goals/match

1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed16/15▲1.13 goals/match

2.16 xG/match▲Expected goals16/151.37 xG/match

17.7 shots/match▲Shots16/1512.3 shots/match

6.25 shots/match▲Shots on target16/154.67 shots/match

62.8%●Possession16/1543.6%

7.25 corners/match●Corners16/154.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.63 fouls/matchFouls16/1511.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.83 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples32 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4