Premier League · 2024Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

DWWWL

0–1Full-time recap

Everton

DDDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Everton
Shots	10 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	5 shots/match
Expected goals	0.52 xG/match	1.36 xG/match▲
Possession	42%	58%●
Corners	1 corners/match	7 corners/match●
Fouls	9 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 10 shots, 5 on target, 0.51 xG. Everton: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.33 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 0.51 xG · Everton 1.33 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

weak

Everton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.06 goals/match	1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nottingham Forest

2Draws

2Everton

29 Dec 2024Everton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–2

21 Apr 2024Everton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0

2 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest — Everton · Premier League0–1

5 Mar 2023Nottingham Forest — Everton · Premier League2–2

20 Aug 2022Everton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Everton in 3 · 4 too close

1.59 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/321.06 goals/match

1.19 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/321.19 goals/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 32/321.11 xG/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 32/321.25 xG/match

12.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 32/3210.8 shots/match

13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/32▲12.7 shots/match

4.47 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 32/323.66 shots/match

4.72 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/32▲4.28 shots/match

39.7%Possessionseason · 32/32●40.2%

4.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/32●4.25 corners/match

6.44 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/32▲5.91 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3211.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

41%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/3231%

81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3259%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest2.5

Everton7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest41.7

Everton17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest48.3

Everton66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest92.5

Everton72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest20

Everton80

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest22.5

Everton27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest28.1

Everton35.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest32 matchesEverton32 matches

1.59 goals/match▲Goals scored32/321.06 goals/match

1.19 goals/matchGoals allowed32/321.19 goals/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goals32/321.11 xG/match

12.4 shots/match▲Shots32/3210.8 shots/match

4.47 shots/match▲Shots on target32/323.66 shots/match

39.7%Possession32/32●40.2%

4.13 corners/matchCorners32/32●4.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls32/3211.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest16 matchesEverton16 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.75 goals/match

0.69 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.19 goals/match

1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161 xG/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shots16/1610.2 shots/match

4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.13 shots/match

41.9%●Possession16/1637.9%

4.06 corners/match●Corners16/164 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.56 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples32 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4