Premier League · 2024Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Southampton

LLLDL

0–3Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Southampton	Aston Villa
Shots	7 shots/match	25 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.31 xG/match	3.03 xG/match▲
Possession	40%	60%●
Corners	2 corners/match	13 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	4 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Southampton: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.31 xG. Aston Villa: 25 shots, 10 on target, 3.33 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Southampton 0.31 xG · Aston Villa 3.33 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.53 goals/match	1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.31 shots/match▲ShotsSouthampton · Aston Villa12.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Southampton	Aston Villa	Baseline
Shots	9.31 shots/match	12.9 shots/match	13.4 shots/match
Shots against	17.7 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Aston Villa have a visible away split

moderate

Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.8 shots/match	12.9 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Southampton

0Draws

4Aston Villa

7 Dec 2024Aston Villa — Southampton · Premier League1–0

21 Jan 2023Southampton — Aston Villa · Premier League0–1

16 Sept 2022Aston Villa — Southampton · Premier League1–0

5 Mar 2022Aston Villa — Southampton · Premier League4–0

5 Nov 2021Southampton — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Southampton favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 11 · 2 too close

0.72 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/32▲1.53 goals/match

2.41 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/32▲1.44 goals/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 32/32▲1.56 xG/match

2.35 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 32/32▲1.34 xG/match

9.31 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/32▲12.9 shots/match

17.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/32▲12.2 shots/match

3.06 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/32▲4.5 shots/match

7.03 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/32▲4.16 shots/match

50%Possessionseason · 32/32●51.5%

4.03 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/32●6.38 corners/match

6.06 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/32▲4.28 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3211 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/32▲19%

59%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/32▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Southampton52.5

Aston Villa57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Southampton5.8

Aston Villa44.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Southampton2.5

Aston Villa57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Southampton2.5

Aston Villa37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Southampton87.5

Aston Villa37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Southampton12.5

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Southampton28.8

Aston Villa50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Southampton32 matchesAston Villa32 matches

0.72 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲1.53 goals/match

2.41 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲1.44 goals/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goals32/32▲1.56 xG/match

9.31 shots/matchShots32/32▲12.9 shots/match

3.06 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲4.5 shots/match

50%Possession32/32●51.5%

4.03 corners/matchCorners32/32●6.38 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls32/3211 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Southampton16 matchesAston Villa16 matches

0.69 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.38 goals/match

2.69 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.69 goals/match

0.99 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲1.25 xG/match

9.19 shots/matchShots16/16▲10.8 shots/match

3.25 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲3.56 shots/match

49.3%●Possession16/1647.8%

3.38 corners/matchCorners16/16●5.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples32 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4