PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Paris Saint-Germain 3–1 Aston Villa · UEFA Champions League

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paris Saint-Germain won 3–1.

Shots
297
Shots on target
102
Expected goals
1.940.74
Possession
75%25%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris Saint-Germain beat Aston Villa 3–1. Recorded in this match (Paris Saint-Germain – Aston Villa): shots 29–7, shots on target 10–2, expected goals 1.94–0.74, possession 75%–25%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Paris Saint-Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Paris Saint-Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

20.2 shots/match ▲ShotsParis Saint-Germain · Aston Villa12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainAston VillaBaseline
Shots20.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against9.08 shots/match12.8 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Paris Saint-Germain's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris Saint-Germain's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2.15 goals/match1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint-Germain have a visible home split

moderate

Paris Saint-Germain's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

25.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season20.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots25.1 shots/match20.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots29 shots7 shotsParis Saint-Germain 29 shots, Aston Villa 7 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots2 shotsParis Saint-Germain 10 shots, Aston Villa 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.94 xG0.74 xGParis Saint-Germain 1.94 xG, Aston Villa 0.74 xG
  • Possession75%25%Paris Saint-Germain 75%, Aston Villa 25%
  • Corners9 corners1 cornerParis Saint-Germain 9 corners, Aston Villa 1 corner
  • Fouls9 fouls8 foulsParis Saint-Germain 9 fouls, Aston Villa 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint-Germain · 8′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 18′ · 0.01 xG · on targetDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 39′ · 0.01 xG · goalDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 44′ · 0.01 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 8′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Beraldo · Paris Saint-Germain · 66′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint-Germain · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAxel Disasi · Aston Villa · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint-Germain · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint-Germain · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWillian Pacho · Paris Saint-Germain · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint-Germain · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 39′ · 0.04 xG · on targetWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint-Germain · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint-Germain · 49′ · 0.05 xG · goalMarco Asensio · Aston Villa · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 48′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 5′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 72′ · 0.07 xG · on targetNuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 10′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 23′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 44′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 47′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint-Germain · 89′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 58′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 58′ · 0.15 xG · on targetKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint-Germain · 56′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedPau Torres · Aston Villa · 58′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 35′ · 0.33 xG · goalNuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 90′ · 0.36 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint-Germain: 29 shots, 10 on target, 1.95 xG. Aston Villa: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Désiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 39′Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint-Germain · 49′Nuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 90′Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 35′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint-Germain 1.95 xG · Aston Villa 0.83 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Paris Saint-Germain favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Paris Saint-Germain13 matchesAston Villa11 matches
2.15 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/111.82 goals/match
0.85 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/110.91 goals/match
2.22 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/111.53 xG/match
20.2 shots/match ▲Shots13/1112.5 shots/match
7.23 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/115.09 shots/match
63.4% ●Possession13/1148.4%
7.15 corners/match ●Corners13/113.73 corners/match
8.69 fouls/matchFouls13/119.82 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 9 Apr 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParis Saint-GermainAston Villa
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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