PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Arsenal 3–0 Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League

Arsenal

WWWWD
3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 3–0.

Shots
129
Shots on target
113
Expected goals
1.590.5
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Real Madrid 3–0. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Real Madrid): shots 12–9, shots on target 11–3, expected goals 1.59–0.5, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.55 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.4 goals/match2.55 goals/match1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid have a visible away split

moderate

Real Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.9 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.82 corners/matchCornersArsenal · Real Madrid● 6.08 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricArsenalReal MadridBaseline
Corners5.82 corners/match6.08 corners/match5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots9 shotsArsenal 12 shots, Real Madrid 9 shots
  • Shots on target11 shots3 shotsArsenal 11 shots, Real Madrid 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.59 xG0.5 xGArsenal 1.59 xG, Real Madrid 0.5 xG
  • Possession53%47%Arsenal 53%, Real Madrid 47%
  • Corners5 corners3 cornersArsenal 5 corners, Real Madrid 3 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls9 foulsArsenal 8 fouls, Real Madrid 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 1′ · 0.01 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 32′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 68′ · 0.02 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 58′ · 0.04 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 70′ · 0.06 xG · goalJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 61′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMikel Merino · Arsenal · 75′ · 0.08 xG · goalGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 44′ · 0.09 xG · on targetThomas Partey · Arsenal · 13′ · 0.10 xG · on targetDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 44′ · 0.12 xG · on targetGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 67′ · 0.13 xG · on targetMikel Merino · Arsenal · 67′ · 0.19 xG · on targetMikel Merino · Arsenal · 67′ · 0.20 xG · on targetDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 13′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 31′ · 0.27 xG · on targetThomas Partey · Arsenal · 7′ · 0.37 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 12 shots, 11 on target, 1.66 xG. Real Madrid: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Declan Rice · Arsenal · 58′Declan Rice · Arsenal · 70′Mikel Merino · Arsenal · 75′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 1.66 xG · Real Madrid 0.51 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal11 matchesReal Madrid13 matches
2.55 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/132.15 goals/match
0.55 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/131.54 goals/match
1.88 xG/matchExpected goals11/12▲ 2.06 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots11/12▲ 14.5 shots/match
6.27 shots/matchShots on target11/126.33 shots/match
52.5%Possession11/12● 52.6%
5.82 corners/matchCorners11/12● 6.08 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1210.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 8 Apr 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalReal Madrid
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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