PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

FC Bayern München 1–2 Inter · UEFA Champions League

1–2Historical match

Inter

LWWWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Inter won 1–2.

Shots
2010
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
2.30.78
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Inter beat FC Bayern München 2–1. Recorded in this match (FC Bayern München – Inter): shots 20–10, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 2.3–0.78, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

20.5 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Bayern München · Inter12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenInterBaseline
Shots20.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against8.15 shots/match13.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Inter's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Inter's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.55 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.55 goals/match1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Bayern München have a visible home split

moderate

FC Bayern München's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

23.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season20.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots23.7 shots/match20.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots10 shotsFC Bayern München 20 shots, Inter 10 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsFC Bayern München 7 shots, Inter 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.3 xG0.78 xGFC Bayern München 2.3 xG, Inter 0.78 xG
  • Possession58%42%FC Bayern München 58%, Inter 42%
  • Corners5 corners1 cornerFC Bayern München 5 corners, Inter 1 corner
  • Fouls9 fouls9 foulsFC Bayern München 9 fouls, Inter 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lautaro Martínez · Inter · 76′ · 0.01 xG · on targetThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 16′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHakan Çalhanoğlu · Inter · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSacha Boey · FC Bayern München · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 86′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarcus Thuram · Inter · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 64′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJosip Stanišić · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHakan Çalhanoğlu · Inter · 20′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 22′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLautaro Martínez · Inter · 56′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMarcus Thuram · Inter · 11′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Augusto · Inter · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHakan Çalhanoğlu · Inter · 12′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 20′ · 0.07 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 80′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 22′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 82′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 14′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLautaro Martínez · Inter · 38′ · 0.16 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 26′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedDavide Frattesi · Inter · 88′ · 0.26 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 85′ · 0.36 xG · goalJosip Stanišić · FC Bayern München · 62′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 20 shots, 7 on target, 2.33 xG. Inter: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.78 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 85′Lautaro Martínez · Inter · 38′Davide Frattesi · Inter · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 2.33 xG · Inter 0.78 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Bayern München
0Draws
0Inter
FC Bayern München — Inter · UEFA Champions League2–0
Inter — FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Inter in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München13 matchesInter11 matches
2.23 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/111.55 goals/match
1.23 goals/matchGoals allowed13/11▲ 0.27 goals/match
2.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/111.79 xG/match
20.5 shots/match ▲Shots13/1112.6 shots/match
7.85 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/114.45 shots/match
65% ●Possession13/1151.4%
7.62 corners/match ●Corners13/112.73 corners/match
9.15 fouls/matchFouls13/119.18 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 8 Apr 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenInter
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
Head-to-headFC Bayern München — Inter
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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