Premier League · 2024Sat, 3 May 2025, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

WWWWL

1–0Full-time recap

Fulham

LWLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Fulham
Shots	10 shots/match	11 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Expected goals	0.96 xG/match▲	0.85 xG/match
Possession	52%●	48%
Corners	5 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	6 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.95 xG. Fulham: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 0.95 xG · Fulham 0.87 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.57 goals/match	1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible home split

moderate

Aston Villa's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.3 shots/match	13 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Aston Villa

0Draws

1Fulham

19 Oct 2024Fulham — Aston Villa · Premier League1–3

17 Feb 2024Fulham — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2

12 Nov 2023Aston Villa — Fulham · Premier League3–1

25 Apr 2023Aston Villa — Fulham · Premier League1–0

20 Oct 2022Fulham — Aston Villa · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Fulham in 2 · 8 too close

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 35/351.43 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 35/351.34 goals/match

1.57 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 35/351.3 xG/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 35/35▲1.17 xG/match

13 shots/matchShotsseason · 35/3513.5 shots/match

12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 35/35▲11.1 shots/match

4.54 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 35/354.49 shots/match

4.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 35/354.14 shots/match

51.1%Possessionseason · 35/35●52.3%

6.23 corners/match●Cornersseason · 35/355.54 corners/match

4.49 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 35/354.46 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3511.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/3514%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 35/3583%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa57.5

Fulham62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa50.8

Fulham44.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa58.3

Fulham66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa37.5

Fulham52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa37.5

Fulham47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa72.5

Fulham57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa51.2

Fulham50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa35 matchesFulham35 matches

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored35/351.43 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed35/351.34 goals/match

1.57 xG/match▲Expected goals35/351.3 xG/match

13 shots/matchShots35/3513.5 shots/match

4.54 shots/matchShots on target35/354.49 shots/match

51.1%Possession35/35●52.3%

6.23 corners/match●Corners35/355.54 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls35/3511.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa18 matchesFulham18 matches

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.33 goals/match

1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.22 goals/match

1.84 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.43 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots18/1813.4 shots/match

5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.06 shots/match

54.7%●Possession18/1852.1%

7.33 corners/match●Corners18/185.56 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10.7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples35 / 35home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 May 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4