Premier League · 2024Sat, 10 May 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Bournemouth

DWDDW

0–1Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bournemouth	Aston Villa
Shots	10 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	0.8 xG/match	0.98 xG/match▲
Possession	66%●	34%
Corners	10 corners/match●	0 corners/match
Fouls	19 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Bournemouth: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.87 xG. Aston Villa: 6 shots, 3 on target, 1.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 0.87 xG · Aston Villa 1.01 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.53 goals/match	1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.11 corners/match●CornersBournemouth · Aston Villa6.06 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Bournemouth	Aston Villa	Baseline
Corners	6.11 corners/match	6.06 corners/match	5.03 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Aston Villa have a visible away split

moderate

Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.3 shots/match	12.8 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bournemouth

2Draws

2Aston Villa

26 Oct 2024Aston Villa — Bournemouth · Premier League1–1

21 Apr 2024Aston Villa — Bournemouth · Premier League3–1

3 Dec 2023Bournemouth — Aston Villa · Premier League2–2

18 Mar 2023Aston Villa — Bournemouth · Premier League3–0

6 Aug 2022Bournemouth — Aston Villa · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 4 · 5 too close

1.53 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 36/361.56 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 36/361.36 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 36/361.55 xG/match

1.31 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 36/361.3 xG/match

15.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 36/3612.8 shots/match

13 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 36/36▲12.1 shots/match

5.28 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 36/364.5 shots/match

4.64 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 36/36▲4.14 shots/match

48.3%Possessionseason · 36/36●50.6%

6.11 corners/match●Cornersseason · 36/366.06 corners/match

5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 36/36▲4.64 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 36/3610.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 36/3622%

78%Scoring frequencyseason · 36/36▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth42.5

Aston Villa52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth70.8

Aston Villa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth50

Aston Villa64.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth97.5

Aston Villa37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth97.5

Aston Villa37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth72.5

Aston Villa67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth83.8

Aston Villa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth36 matchesAston Villa36 matches

1.53 goals/matchGoals scored36/361.56 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed36/361.36 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goals36/361.55 xG/match

15.2 shots/match▲Shots36/3612.8 shots/match

5.28 shots/match▲Shots on target36/364.5 shots/match

48.3%Possession36/36●50.6%

6.11 corners/match●Corners36/366.06 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.6 fouls/matchFouls36/3610.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth18 matchesAston Villa18 matches

1.17 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲1.33 goals/match

0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.61 goals/match

1.68 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.26 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots18/1810.3 shots/match

5.39 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.5 shots/match

47.8%●Possession18/1846.4%

6.28 corners/match●Corners18/184.78 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.8 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.21 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples36 / 36home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 May 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4