PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa · Premier League

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Aston Villa won 0–1.

Shots
106
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
0.80.98
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Aston Villa beat Bournemouth 1–0. Recorded in this match (Bournemouth – Aston Villa): shots 10–6, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 0.8–0.98, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.53 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.11 corners/match ●CornersBournemouth · Aston Villa6.06 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthAston VillaBaseline
Corners6.11 corners/match6.06 corners/match5.03 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Aston Villa have a visible away split

moderate

Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots6 shotsBournemouth 10 shots, Aston Villa 6 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsBournemouth 4 shots, Aston Villa 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.8 xG0.98 xGBournemouth 0.8 xG, Aston Villa 0.98 xG
  • Possession66%34%Bournemouth 66%, Aston Villa 34%
  • Corners10 corners0 cornersBournemouth 10 corners, Aston Villa 0 corners
  • Fouls19 fouls12 foulsBournemouth 19 fouls, Aston Villa 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 69′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlex Scott · Bournemouth · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMiloš Kerkez · Bournemouth · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIlya Zabarnyi · Bournemouth · 86′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEvanilson · Bournemouth · 20′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMatty Cash · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 81′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Senesi · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBoubacar Kamara · Aston Villa · 46′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEvanilson · Bournemouth · 82′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMarco Asensio · Aston Villa · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJacob Ramsey · Aston Villa · 14′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.35 xG · goalBoubacar Kamara · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.37 xG · on targetDaniel Jebbison · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bournemouth: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.87 xG. Aston Villa: 6 shots, 3 on target, 1.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 0.87 xG · Aston Villa 1.01 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Bournemouth
2Draws
2Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Bournemouth · Premier League1–1
Aston Villa — Bournemouth · Premier League3–1
Bournemouth — Aston Villa · Premier League2–2
Aston Villa — Bournemouth · Premier League3–0
Bournemouth — Aston Villa · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bournemouth favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bournemouth36 matchesAston Villa36 matches
1.53 goals/matchGoals scored36/361.56 goals/match
1.19 goals/match ▲Goals allowed36/361.36 goals/match
1.72 xG/match ▲Expected goals36/361.55 xG/match
15.2 shots/match ▲Shots36/3612.8 shots/match
5.28 shots/match ▲Shots on target36/364.5 shots/match
48.3%Possession36/36● 50.6%
6.11 corners/match ●Corners36/366.06 corners/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls36/3610.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples36 / 36home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 May 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBournemouthAston Villa
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headBournemouth — Aston Villa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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