Premier League · 2024Sat, 3 May 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

WDDWD

1–2Full-time recap

Bournemouth

LDWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Bournemouth
Shots	13 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.42 xG/match▲	0.97 xG/match
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	2 corners/match	3 corners/match●
Fouls	7 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Arsenal: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.44 xG. Bournemouth: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 1.44 xG · Bournemouth 0.97 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	11 shots/match	15.4 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.63 corners/match●CornersArsenal · Bournemouth6 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Bournemouth	Baseline
Corners	6.63 corners/match	6 corners/match	5.13 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.1%●PossessionArsenal · Bournemouth47.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Bournemouth	Baseline
Possession	57.1%	47.8%	50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Arsenal

0Draws

1Bournemouth

19 Oct 2024Bournemouth — Arsenal · Premier League2–0

4 May 2024Arsenal — Bournemouth · Premier League3–0

30 Sept 2023Bournemouth — Arsenal · Premier League0–4

4 Mar 2023Arsenal — Bournemouth · Premier League3–2

20 Aug 2022Bournemouth — Arsenal · Premier League0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 3 · 2 too close

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 35/351.57 goals/match

0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 35/351.2 goals/match

1.6 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 35/35▲1.75 xG/match

0.86 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 35/351.32 xG/match

14.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 35/35▲15.4 shots/match

9.34 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 35/3513.2 shots/match

4.83 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 35/35▲5.31 shots/match

3.09 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 35/354.69 shots/match

57.1%●Possessionseason · 35/3547.8%

6.63 corners/match●Cornersseason · 35/356 corners/match

2.94 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 35/355.14 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3513.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

34%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/3523%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 35/3580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal82.5

Bournemouth42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal75.8

Bournemouth73.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal97.5

Bournemouth49.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal32.5

Bournemouth97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal22.5

Bournemouth97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal87.5

Bournemouth67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal63.8

Bournemouth82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal35 matchesBournemouth35 matches

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored35/351.57 goals/match

0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed35/351.2 goals/match

1.6 xG/matchExpected goals35/35▲1.75 xG/match

14.2 shots/matchShots35/35▲15.4 shots/match

4.83 shots/matchShots on target35/35▲5.31 shots/match

57.1%●Possession35/3547.8%

6.63 corners/match●Corners35/356 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls35/3513.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal18 matchesBournemouth18 matches

1.89 goals/matchGoals scored18/181.89 goals/match

0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.5 goals/match

1.66 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲1.77 xG/match

16.3 shots/match▲Shots18/1814.4 shots/match

5.61 shots/match▲Shots on target18/185.17 shots/match

57.6%●Possession18/1848.8%

7.28 corners/match●Corners18/185.94 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.78 fouls/matchFouls18/1813.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.15 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples35 / 35home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 May 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4