PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Arsenal 1–2 Bournemouth · Premier League

Arsenal

WDDWD
1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bournemouth won 1–2.

Shots
139
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.420.97
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bournemouth beat Arsenal 2–1. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Bournemouth): shots 13–9, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.42–0.97, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match15.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.63 corners/match ●CornersArsenal · Bournemouth6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricArsenalBournemouthBaseline
Corners6.63 corners/match6 corners/match5.13 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.1% ●PossessionArsenal · Bournemouth47.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricArsenalBournemouthBaseline
Possession57.1%47.8%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots9 shotsArsenal 13 shots, Bournemouth 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsArsenal 4 shots, Bournemouth 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.42 xG0.97 xGArsenal 1.42 xG, Bournemouth 0.97 xG
  • Possession50%50%Arsenal 50%, Bournemouth 50%
  • Corners2 corners3 cornersArsenal 2 corners, Bournemouth 3 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls16 foulsArsenal 7 fouls, Bournemouth 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Evanilson · Bournemouth · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 63′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 62′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 27′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 44′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 72′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 15′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 42′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 31′ · 0.10 xG · on targetEvanilson · Bournemouth · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 54′ · 0.11 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 52′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedDean Huijsen · Bournemouth · 67′ · 0.16 xG · goalEvanilson · Bournemouth · 75′ · 0.16 xG · goalBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 48′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedEvanilson · Bournemouth · 26′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 34′ · 0.44 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.44 xG. Bournemouth: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Declan Rice · Arsenal · 34′Dean Huijsen · Bournemouth · 67′Evanilson · Bournemouth · 75′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 1.44 xG · Bournemouth 0.97 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Arsenal
0Draws
1Bournemouth
Bournemouth — Arsenal · Premier League2–0
Arsenal — Bournemouth · Premier League3–0
Bournemouth — Arsenal · Premier League0–4
Arsenal — Bournemouth · Premier League3–2
Bournemouth — Arsenal · Premier League0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 3

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal35 matchesBournemouth35 matches
1.83 goals/match ▲Goals scored35/351.57 goals/match
0.89 goals/match ▲Goals allowed35/351.2 goals/match
1.6 xG/matchExpected goals35/35▲ 1.75 xG/match
14.2 shots/matchShots35/35▲ 15.4 shots/match
4.83 shots/matchShots on target35/35▲ 5.31 shots/match
57.1% ●Possession35/3547.8%
6.63 corners/match ●Corners35/356 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls35/3513.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples35 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 May 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalBournemouth
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headArsenal — Bournemouth
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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