Premier League · 2024Sun, 4 May 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

LLDLW

1–1Full-time recap

Newcastle United

WWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brighton & Hove Albion	Newcastle United
Shots	5 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.69 xG/match	1.87 xG/match▲
Possession	46%	54%●
Corners	1 corners/match	4 corners/match●
Fouls	15 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Brighton & Hove Albion: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.69 xG. Newcastle United: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.89 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brighton & Hove Albion 0.69 xG · Newcastle United 1.89 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.89 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	1.89 goals/match	1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Brighton & Hove Albion

2Draws

1Newcastle United

19 Oct 2024Newcastle United — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League0–1

11 May 2024Newcastle United — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–1

2 Sept 2023Brighton & Hove Albion — Newcastle United · Premier League3–1

18 May 2023Newcastle United — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League4–1

13 Aug 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Newcastle United · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 5 · 4 too close

1.63 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 35/35▲1.89 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 35/35▲1.29 goals/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 35/35▲1.74 xG/match

1.42 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 35/35▲1.26 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 35/3513.5 shots/match

11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 35/3512.3 shots/match

4.83 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 35/354.46 shots/match

3.97 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 35/354.31 shots/match

52.5%●Possessionseason · 35/3551%

4.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 35/35●5.6 corners/match

4.86 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 35/355.14 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3510.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/35▲34%

86%Scoring frequencyseason · 35/3586%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton & Hove Albion67.5

Newcastle United52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton & Hove Albion65.8

Newcastle United60.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton & Hove Albion60.8

Newcastle United57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton & Hove Albion62.5

Newcastle United72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion80

Newcastle United12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion47.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton & Hove Albion65.6

Newcastle United42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion35 matchesNewcastle United35 matches

1.63 goals/matchGoals scored35/35▲1.89 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed35/35▲1.29 goals/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goals35/35▲1.74 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShots35/3513.5 shots/match

4.83 shots/match▲Shots on target35/354.46 shots/match

52.5%●Possession35/3551%

4.86 corners/matchCorners35/35●5.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls35/3510.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brighton & Hove Albion18 matchesNewcastle United18 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored18/181.56 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.44 goals/match

1.59 xG/matchExpected goals18/181.66 xG/match

14.7 shots/match▲Shots18/1811.9 shots/match

4.72 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184 shots/match

52.7%●Possession18/1851.3%

4.89 corners/matchCorners18/18●5.17 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls18/189.72 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples35 / 35home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 May 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4