Premier League · 2024Sun, 11 May 2025, 11:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Newcastle United

WWLWD

2–0Full-time recap

Chelsea

DDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle United	Chelsea
Shots	15 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.56 xG/match▲	0.69 xG/match
Possession	45%	55%●
Corners	2 corners/match	8 corners/match●
Fouls	9 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Newcastle United: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.60 xG. Chelsea: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 1.60 xG · Chelsea 0.70 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.89 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.89 goals/match	1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Newcastle United

1Draws

2Chelsea

27 Oct 2024Chelsea — Newcastle United · Premier League2–1

11 Mar 2024Chelsea — Newcastle United · Premier League3–2

25 Nov 2023Newcastle United — Chelsea · Premier League4–1

28 May 2023Chelsea — Newcastle United · Premier League1–1

12 Nov 2022Newcastle United — Chelsea · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 5 · 5 too close

1.89 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 36/361.72 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 36/361.19 goals/match

1.73 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 36/36▲1.86 xG/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 36/361.3 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 36/36▲16.1 shots/match

12.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 36/36▲10.7 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 36/36▲5.92 shots/match

4.28 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 36/364.28 shots/match

50.8%Possessionseason · 36/36●57.7%

5.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 36/36●6.19 corners/match

5.22 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 36/36▲3.61 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 36/3611.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 36/3625%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 36/3681%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United57.5

Chelsea87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United62.5

Chelsea84.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United58.3

Chelsea73.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United72.5

Chelsea77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United12.5

Chelsea67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United57.5

Chelsea77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United41.2

Chelsea82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United36 matchesChelsea36 matches

1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored36/361.72 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed36/361.19 goals/match

1.73 xG/matchExpected goals36/36▲1.86 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShots36/36▲16.1 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target36/36▲5.92 shots/match

50.8%Possession36/36●57.7%

5.5 corners/matchCorners36/36●6.19 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls36/3611.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United18 matchesChelsea18 matches

2.22 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.56 goals/match

1.06 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.39 goals/match

1.81 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.66 xG/match

15.2 shots/match▲Shots18/1813.9 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target18/184.94 shots/match

50.4%Possession18/18●59.4%

5.83 corners/matchCorners18/18●5.94 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.81 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples36 / 36home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 May 2025, 15:00 UTC · analysis-v4