PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sun, 11 May 2025, 13:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNottingham ForestLeicester City
Shots15 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.3 xG/match▲1.05 xG/match
Possession56%●44%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

James Justin · Leicester City · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 80′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Leicester City · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJeremy Monga · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 44′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFacundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 66′ · 0.03 xG · on targetChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedElliot Anderson · Nottingham Forest · 43′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 53′ · 0.07 xG · on targetChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 4′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBilal El Khannouss · Leicester City · 16′ · 0.10 xG · on targetFacundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 81′ · 0.11 xG · goalJeremy Monga · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetWout Faes · Leicester City · 69′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedKasey McAteer · Leicester City · 76′ · 0.18 xG · on targetChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 56′ · 0.20 xG · goalChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 44′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedConor Coady · Leicester City · 16′ · 0.33 xG · goalMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 25′ · 0.33 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.31 xG. Leicester City: 10 shots, 6 on target, 1.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Morgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 25′Chris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 56′Conor Coady · Leicester City · 16′Facundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.31 xG · Leicester City 1.08 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Leicester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Leicester City8.94 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestLeicester CityBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match8.94 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against14.1 shots/match16.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Nottingham Forest
0Draws
1Leicester City
Leicester City — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–3
Nottingham Forest — Leicester City · Premier League2–0
Leicester City — Nottingham Forest · Premier League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Leicester City in 0 · 3 too close

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 36/360.86 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 36/362.17 goals/match
1.21 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 36/360.88 xG/match
1.32 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 36/361.94 xG/match
12.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 36/368.94 shots/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 36/3616.7 shots/match
4.42 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 36/363 shots/match
4.69 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 36/365.75 shots/match
40.6%Possessionseason · 36/36●45.4%
4.03 corners/match●Cornersseason · 36/363.78 corners/match
6.36 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 36/366.17 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 36/3610.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 36/366%
81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 36/3656%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest12.5
Leicester City22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest40
Leicester City5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest43.3
Leicester City10
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest87.5
Leicester City7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest27.5
Leicester City32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest27.5
Leicester City7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest30
Leicester City12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest36 matchesLeicester City36 matches
1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored36/360.86 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed36/362.17 goals/match
1.21 xG/match▲Expected goals36/360.88 xG/match
12.3 shots/match▲Shots36/368.94 shots/match
4.42 shots/match▲Shots on target36/363 shots/match
40.6%Possession36/36●45.4%
4.03 corners/match●Corners36/363.78 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFouls36/3610.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest18 matchesLeicester City18 matches
1.44 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181 goals/match
0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/182.44 goals/match
1.23 xG/match▲Expected goals18/180.87 xG/match
12.4 shots/match▲Shots18/188.67 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.11 shots/match
43.4%●Possession18/1841.9%
4.06 corners/match●Corners18/183.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.67 fouls/matchFouls18/1810.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.97 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples36 / 36home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 May 2025, 17:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNottingham ForestLeicester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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