PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Nottingham Forest 2–2 Leicester City · Premier League

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nottingham Forest and Leicester City drew 2–2.

Shots
1510
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
1.31.05
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nottingham Forest and Leicester City drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Nottingham Forest – Leicester City): shots 15–10, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 1.3–1.05, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Leicester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Leicester City8.94 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestLeicester CityBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match8.94 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against14.1 shots/match16.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots10 shotsNottingham Forest 15 shots, Leicester City 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shotsNottingham Forest 4 shots, Leicester City 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.3 xG1.05 xGNottingham Forest 1.3 xG, Leicester City 1.05 xG
  • Possession56%44%Nottingham Forest 56%, Leicester City 44%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersNottingham Forest 4 corners, Leicester City 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls11 foulsNottingham Forest 11 fouls, Leicester City 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

James Justin · Leicester City · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 80′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Leicester City · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJeremy Monga · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 44′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFacundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 66′ · 0.03 xG · on targetChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedElliot Anderson · Nottingham Forest · 43′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 53′ · 0.07 xG · on targetChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 4′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBilal El Khannouss · Leicester City · 16′ · 0.10 xG · on targetFacundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 81′ · 0.11 xG · goalJeremy Monga · Leicester City · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetWout Faes · Leicester City · 69′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedKasey McAteer · Leicester City · 76′ · 0.18 xG · on targetChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 56′ · 0.20 xG · goalChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 44′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedConor Coady · Leicester City · 16′ · 0.33 xG · goalMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 25′ · 0.33 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.31 xG. Leicester City: 10 shots, 6 on target, 1.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Morgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 25′Chris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 56′Conor Coady · Leicester City · 16′Facundo Buonanotte · Leicester City · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.31 xG · Leicester City 1.08 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Nottingham Forest
0Draws
1Leicester City
Leicester City — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–3
Nottingham Forest — Leicester City · Premier League2–0
Leicester City — Nottingham Forest · Premier League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Leicester City in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest36 matchesLeicester City36 matches
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals scored36/360.86 goals/match
1.22 goals/match ▲Goals allowed36/362.17 goals/match
1.21 xG/match ▲Expected goals36/360.88 xG/match
12.3 shots/match ▲Shots36/368.94 shots/match
4.42 shots/match ▲Shots on target36/363 shots/match
40.6%Possession36/36● 45.4%
4.03 corners/match ●Corners36/363.78 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls36/3610.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples36 / 36home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 May 2025, 17:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestLeicester City
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headNottingham Forest — Leicester City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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