Premier League · 2024Mon, 5 May 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Crystal Palace

WLLDD

1–1Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WLLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Crystal Palace	Nottingham Forest
Shots	20 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.32 xG/match▲	0.73 xG/match
Possession	49%	51%●
Corners	7 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Crystal Palace: 20 shots, 3 on target, 2.36 xG. Nottingham Forest: 12 shots, 4 on target, 0.72 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Crystal Palace 2.36 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.72 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.54 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.54 goals/match	1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Crystal Palace

3Draws

2Nottingham Forest

21 Oct 2024Nottingham Forest — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–0

30 Mar 2024Nottingham Forest — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–1

7 Oct 2023Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest · Premier League0–0

28 May 2023Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1

12 Nov 2022Nottingham Forest — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 3 · 5 too close

1.26 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 35/35▲1.54 goals/match

1.37 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 35/35▲1.2 goals/match

1.54 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 35/351.21 xG/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 35/351.33 xG/match

13.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 35/3512.2 shots/match

12.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 35/3514.3 shots/match

4.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 35/354.43 shots/match

4.23 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 35/354.66 shots/match

42.9%●Possessionseason · 35/3540.2%

4.66 corners/match●Cornersseason · 35/354.03 corners/match

5.43 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 35/356.43 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3510.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/35▲37%

77%Scoring frequencyseason · 35/3580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace17.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace45.8

Nottingham Forest37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace51.7

Nottingham Forest46.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace92.5

Nottingham Forest87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace42.5

Nottingham Forest20

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace42.5

Nottingham Forest25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace47.5

Nottingham Forest27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Crystal Palace35 matchesNottingham Forest35 matches

1.26 goals/matchGoals scored35/35▲1.54 goals/match

1.37 goals/matchGoals allowed35/35▲1.2 goals/match

1.54 xG/match▲Expected goals35/351.21 xG/match

13.4 shots/match▲Shots35/3512.2 shots/match

4.57 shots/matchShots on target35/354.43 shots/match

42.9%●Possession35/3540.2%

4.66 corners/match●Corners35/354.03 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls35/3510.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Crystal Palace18 matchesNottingham Forest18 matches

1.11 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲1.67 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.61 goals/match

1.63 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.19 xG/match

14.3 shots/match▲Shots18/1812.2 shots/match

4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.28 shots/match

43.2%●Possession18/1837.9%

4.83 corners/match●Corners18/184 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.02 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples35 / 35home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 5 May 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4