Premier League · 2024Sun, 4 May 2025, 15:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

WDDWW

3–1Full-time recap

Liverpool

WLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	Liverpool
Shots	17 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	3.13 xG/match▲	1.05 xG/match
Possession	35%	65%●
Corners	3 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	10 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Chelsea's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.14 corners/matchCornersChelsea · Liverpool●6.71 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Chelsea	Liverpool	Baseline
Corners	6.14 corners/match	6.71 corners/match	5.04 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

weak

Chelsea's last-five shots average is above their season average.

19 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	19 shots/match	16.2 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Chelsea

3Draws

2Liverpool

20 Oct 2024Liverpool — Chelsea · Premier League2–1

31 Jan 2024Liverpool — Chelsea · Premier League4–1

13 Aug 2023Chelsea — Liverpool · Premier League1–1

4 Apr 2023Chelsea — Liverpool · Premier League0–0

21 Jan 2023Liverpool — Chelsea · Premier League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Liverpool in 9 · 4 too close

1.77 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 35/35▲2.31 goals/match

1.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 35/35▲1 goals/match

1.89 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 35/35▲2.16 xG/match

1.29 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 35/35▲0.92 xG/match

16.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 35/35▲17.1 shots/match

10.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 35/35▲9.63 shots/match

6 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 35/356.17 shots/match

4.23 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 35/35▲3.31 shots/match

57.8%Possessionseason · 35/35●58.2%

6.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 35/35●6.71 corners/match

3.66 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 35/353.83 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3511.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

26%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/35▲40%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 35/35▲97%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea87.5

Liverpool92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea85

Liverpool97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea77.5

Liverpool90.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea77.5

Liverpool82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea60

Liverpool52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea72.5

Liverpool92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea79.4

Liverpool85

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea35 matchesLiverpool35 matches

1.77 goals/matchGoals scored35/35▲2.31 goals/match

1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed35/35▲1 goals/match

1.89 xG/matchExpected goals35/35▲2.16 xG/match

16.2 shots/matchShots35/35▲17.1 shots/match

6 shots/matchShots on target35/356.17 shots/match

57.8%Possession35/35●58.2%

6.14 corners/matchCorners35/35●6.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls35/3511.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea18 matchesLiverpool18 matches

1.89 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲2.33 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.22 goals/match

2.06 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲2.17 xG/match

18.2 shots/matchShots18/1817.3 shots/match

6.89 shots/match▲Shots on target18/186.22 shots/match

56%Possession18/18●56.8%

6.44 corners/matchCorners18/18●7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples35 / 35home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 May 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4