Premier League · 2024Sun, 11 May 2025, 15:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Liverpool

LWWWL

2–2Full-time recap

Arsenal

DDWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Liverpool	Arsenal
Shots	14 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.39 xG/match	2.58 xG/match▲
Possession	44%	56%●
Corners	3 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Liverpool: 14 shots, 5 on target, 2.35 xG. Arsenal: 15 shots, 7 on target, 2.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Liverpool 2.35 xG · Arsenal 2.67 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.61 corners/match●CornersLiverpool · Arsenal6.47 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Liverpool	Arsenal	Baseline
Corners	6.61 corners/match	6.47 corners/match	5.07 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Liverpool

3Draws

2Arsenal

27 Oct 2024Arsenal — Liverpool · Premier League2–2

4 Feb 2024Arsenal — Liverpool · Premier League3–1

23 Dec 2023Liverpool — Arsenal · Premier League1–1

9 Apr 2023Liverpool — Arsenal · Premier League2–2

9 Oct 2022Arsenal — Liverpool · Premier League3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 4 · 3 too close

2.31 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 36/361.83 goals/match

1.03 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 36/36▲0.92 goals/match

2.17 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 36/361.63 xG/match

0.97 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 36/36▲0.9 xG/match

17 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 36/3614.2 shots/match

9.78 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 36/369.47 shots/match

6.14 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 36/364.89 shots/match

3.42 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 36/36▲3.14 shots/match

57.8%●Possessionseason · 36/3657.1%

6.61 corners/match●Cornersseason · 36/366.47 corners/match

3.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 36/36▲2.94 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 36/3610.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 36/3633%

97%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 36/3686%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool92.5

Arsenal82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool97.5

Arsenal77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool90.8

Arsenal95.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool82.5

Arsenal32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool60

Arsenal22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool87.5

Arsenal82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool85.6

Arsenal63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Liverpool36 matchesArsenal36 matches

2.31 goals/match▲Goals scored36/361.83 goals/match

1.03 goals/matchGoals allowed36/36▲0.92 goals/match

2.17 xG/match▲Expected goals36/361.63 xG/match

17 shots/match▲Shots36/3614.2 shots/match

6.14 shots/match▲Shots on target36/364.89 shots/match

57.8%●Possession36/3657.1%

6.61 corners/match●Corners36/366.47 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls36/3610.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Liverpool18 matchesArsenal18 matches

2.28 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.78 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/180.89 goals/match

2.17 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.6 xG/match

16.7 shots/match▲Shots18/1812.1 shots/match

6.06 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.17 shots/match

58.8%●Possession18/1856.5%

6.22 corners/match●Corners18/185.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.96 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples36 / 36home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 May 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4