PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Paris Saint-Germain 2–1 Arsenal · UEFA Champions League

2–1Historical match

Arsenal

WDWWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paris Saint-Germain won 2–1.

Shots
1119
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
1.742.9
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris Saint-Germain beat Arsenal 2–1. Recorded in this match (Paris Saint-Germain – Arsenal): shots 11–19, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 1.74–2.9, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.21 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2.21 goals/match1.61 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint-Germain have a visible home split

moderate

Paris Saint-Germain's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

23.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season18.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots23.4 shots/match18.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Paris Saint-Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint-Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.6 shots/match ▲ShotsParis Saint-Germain · Arsenal13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainArsenalBaseline
Shots18.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against10.3 shots/match10.4 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots19 shotsParis Saint-Germain 11 shots, Arsenal 19 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsParis Saint-Germain 6 shots, Arsenal 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.74 xG2.9 xGParis Saint-Germain 1.74 xG, Arsenal 2.9 xG
  • Possession46%54%Paris Saint-Germain 46%, Arsenal 54%
  • Corners2 corners6 cornersParis Saint-Germain 2 corners, Arsenal 6 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls11 foulsParis Saint-Germain 11 fouls, Arsenal 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Achraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 82′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJurriën Timber · Arsenal · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 64′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint-Germain · 27′ · 0.04 xG · goalAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 64′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint-Germain · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Arsenal · 32′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kiwior · Arsenal · 10′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 54′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 8′ · 0.08 xG · on targetBen White · Arsenal · 89′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 3′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 30′ · 0.13 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 72′ · 0.14 xG · goalGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 4′ · 0.15 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 81′ · 0.16 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 76′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 23′ · 0.23 xG · on targetJurriën Timber · Arsenal · 58′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 76′ · 0.66 xG · goalBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 80′ · 0.81 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 69′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint-Germain: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.74 xG. Arsenal: 19 shots, 4 on target, 2.90 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Fabián Ruiz · Paris Saint-Germain · 27′Achraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 72′Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint-Germain 1.74 xG · Arsenal 2.90 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Paris Saint-Germain
0Draws
1Arsenal
Arsenal — Paris Saint-Germain · UEFA Champions League0–1
Arsenal — Paris Saint-Germain · UEFA Champions League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Paris Saint-Germain favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Arsenal in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Paris Saint-Germain16 matchesArsenal14 matches
2.06 goals/matchGoals scored16/14▲ 2.21 goals/match
0.94 goals/matchGoals allowed16/14▲ 0.71 goals/match
2.09 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/141.94 xG/match
18.6 shots/match ▲Shots16/1413.1 shots/match
6.94 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/146 shots/match
61.8% ●Possession16/1451%
6.31 corners/match ●Corners16/145.5 corners/match
8.88 fouls/matchFouls16/1411.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 May 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParis Saint-GermainArsenal
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
Head-to-headParis Saint-Germain — Arsenal
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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