PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Montpellier 1–4 Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 1

1–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paris Saint-Germain won 1–4.

Shots
910
Shots on target
48
Expected goals
0.611.5
Possession
31%69%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris Saint-Germain beat Montpellier 4–1. Recorded in this match (Montpellier – Paris Saint-Germain): shots 9–10, shots on target 4–8, expected goals 0.61–1.5, possession 31%–69%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Montpellier's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Montpellier's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.7 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.7 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint-Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Paris Saint-Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.1 shots/match ▲ShotsMontpellier · Paris Saint-Germain18.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMontpellierParis Saint-GermainBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match18.5 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against15.4 shots/match9.18 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.7%PossessionMontpellier · Paris Saint-Germain● 68.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMontpellierParis Saint-GermainBaseline
Possession44.7%68.5%48.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots10 shotsMontpellier 9 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots8 shotsMontpellier 4 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.61 xG1.5 xGMontpellier 0.61 xG, Paris Saint-Germain 1.5 xG
  • Possession31%69%Montpellier 31%, Paris Saint-Germain 69%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersMontpellier 5 corners, Paris Saint-Germain 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls11 foulsMontpellier 14 fouls, Paris Saint-Germain 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 24′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIbrahim Mbaye · Paris Saint-Germain · 77′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKhalil Fayad · Montpellier · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedThéo Chennahi · Montpellier · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRabby Nzingoula · Montpellier · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 65′ · 0.05 xG · goalAxel Tape · Paris Saint-Germain · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWahbi Khazri · Montpellier · 87′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWahbi Khazri · Montpellier · 87′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJunior Ndiaye · Montpellier · 76′ · 0.07 xG · on targetTanguy Coulibaly · Montpellier · 5′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJoris Chotard · Montpellier · 6′ · 0.08 xG · on targetSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint-Germain · 44′ · 0.13 xG · goalBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 32′ · 0.16 xG · on targetTanguy Coulibaly · Montpellier · 64′ · 0.19 xG · goalGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 49′ · 0.21 xG · goalIbrahim Mbaye · Paris Saint-Germain · 42′ · 0.24 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 59′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Montpellier: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.61 xG. Paris Saint-Germain: 10 shots, 8 on target, 1.74 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Tanguy Coulibaly · Montpellier · 64′Senny Mayulu · Paris Saint-Germain · 44′Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 49′Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 59′Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Montpellier 0.61 xG · Paris Saint-Germain 1.74 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Montpellier
0Draws
5Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain — Montpellier · Ligue 16–0
Montpellier — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 12–6
Paris Saint-Germain — Montpellier · Ligue 13–0
Montpellier — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–3
Paris Saint-Germain — Montpellier · Ligue 15–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Montpellier favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Paris Saint-Germain in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Montpellier33 matchesParis Saint-Germain33 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲ 2.7 goals/match
2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲ 1.03 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals33/33▲ 2.62 xG/match
11.1 shots/matchShots33/33▲ 18.5 shots/match
3.58 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲ 8.27 shots/match
44.7%Possession33/33● 68.5%
4.76 corners/matchCorners33/33● 6.36 corners/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls33/338.94 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 May 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMontpellierParis Saint-Germain
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headMontpellier — Paris Saint-Germain
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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