PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Le Havre 1–3 Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 1

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Olympique de Marseille won 1–3.

Shots
1022
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
0.962.57
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Olympique de Marseille beat Le Havre 3–1. Recorded in this match (Le Havre – Olympique de Marseille): shots 10–22, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 0.96–2.57, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Olympique de Marseille's recent record differs from the season

weak

Olympique de Marseille's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.12 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2.12 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Olympique de Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.3%PossessionLe Havre · Olympique de Marseille● 63.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLe HavreOlympique de MarseilleBaseline
Possession42.3%63.7%48.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Le Havre show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Le Havre's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLe Havre · Olympique de Marseille14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLe HavreOlympique de MarseilleBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match14.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match9.61 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots22 shotsLe Havre 10 shots, Olympique de Marseille 22 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsLe Havre 4 shots, Olympique de Marseille 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.96 xG2.57 xGLe Havre 0.96 xG, Olympique de Marseille 2.57 xG
  • Possession46%54%Le Havre 46%, Olympique de Marseille 54%
  • Corners2 corners9 cornersLe Havre 2 corners, Olympique de Marseille 9 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls12 foulsLe Havre 12 fouls, Olympique de Marseille 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Valentin Rongier · Olympique de Marseille · 35′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Rowe · Olympique de Marseille · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuís Henrique · Olympique de Marseille · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille · 85′ · 0.02 xG · goalMason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Rowe · Olympique de Marseille · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Rabiot · Olympique de Marseille · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosué Casimir · Le Havre · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Rabiot · Olympique de Marseille · 38′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTimothee Pembele · Le Havre · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYassine Kechta · Le Havre · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille · 29′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille · 49′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Balerdi · Olympique de Marseille · 50′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedValentin Rongier · Olympique de Marseille · 55′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDerek Cornelius · Olympique de Marseille · 44′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 61′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Balerdi · Olympique de Marseille · 64′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetLoic Négo · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTimothee Pembele · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 66′ · 0.14 xG · goalAdrien Rabiot · Olympique de Marseille · 10′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Rabiot · Olympique de Marseille · 54′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedJunior Mwanga · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.25 xG · on targetAdrien Rabiot · Olympique de Marseille · 10′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Olympique de Marseille · 3′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Olympique de Marseille · 56′ · 0.35 xG · goalAmine Gouiri · Olympique de Marseille · 90′ · 0.59 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Havre: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.96 xG. Olympique de Marseille: 22 shots, 5 on target, 2.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Issa Soumaré · Le Havre · 66′Amine Gouiri · Olympique de Marseille · 56′Mason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille · 85′Amine Gouiri · Olympique de Marseille · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Havre 0.96 xG · Olympique de Marseille 2.58 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Le Havre
0Draws
3Olympique de Marseille
Olympique de Marseille — Le Havre · Ligue 15–1
Le Havre — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–2
Olympique de Marseille — Le Havre · Ligue 13–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Le Havre favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Olympique de Marseille in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Le Havre33 matchesOlympique de Marseille33 matches
1.12 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲ 2.12 goals/match
2.09 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲ 1.36 goals/match
1.25 xG/matchExpected goals32/33▲ 1.85 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots32/33▲ 14.4 shots/match
3.34 shots/matchShots on target32/33▲ 5.91 shots/match
42.3%Possession32/33● 63.7%
3.94 corners/matchCorners32/33● 5.21 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls32/3311.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 May 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLe HavreOlympique de Marseille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headLe Havre — Olympique de Marseille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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