PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Stade Brestois 1–0 Montpellier · Ligue 1

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Stade Brestois won 1–0.

Shots
166
Shots on target
51
Expected goals
1.10.56
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Stade Brestois beat Montpellier 1–0. Recorded in this match (Stade Brestois – Montpellier): shots 16–6, shots on target 5–1, expected goals 1.1–0.56, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Montpellier's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Montpellier's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.69 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.69 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots6 shotsStade Brestois 16 shots, Montpellier 6 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots1 shotStade Brestois 5 shots, Montpellier 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.1 xG0.56 xGStade Brestois 1.1 xG, Montpellier 0.56 xG
  • Possession64%36%Stade Brestois 64%, Montpellier 36%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersStade Brestois 4 corners, Montpellier 6 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls18 foulsStade Brestois 14 fouls, Montpellier 18 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lucas Mincarelli · Montpellier · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Ndiaye · Stade Brestois · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 49′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKhalil Fayad · Montpellier · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 58′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Stade Brestois · 66′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Tchato Mbiayi · Montpellier · 5′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois · 15′ · 0.06 xG · goalKhalil Fayad · Montpellier · 44′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 54′ · 0.10 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 14′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedKhalil Fayad · Montpellier · 26′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedTanguy Coulibaly · Montpellier · 30′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 41′ · 0.20 xG · on targetMahdi Camara · Stade Brestois · 3′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.11 xG. Montpellier: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Romain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois · 15′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 1.11 xG · Montpellier 0.48 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Stade Brestois
0Draws
3Montpellier
Montpellier — Stade Brestois · Ligue 13–1
Stade Brestois — Montpellier · Ligue 12–0
Montpellier — Stade Brestois · Ligue 11–3
Montpellier — Stade Brestois · Ligue 13–0
Stade Brestois — Montpellier · Ligue 10–7

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Brestois favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Montpellier in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Brestois32 matchesMontpellier32 matches
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals scored32/320.69 goals/match
1.66 goals/match ▲Goals allowed32/322.25 goals/match
1.33 xG/match ▲Expected goals31/321.05 xG/match
12.4 shots/match ▲Shots31/3211.1 shots/match
4.84 shots/match ▲Shots on target31/323.56 shots/match
48.8% ●Possession31/3245.1%
4.29 corners/matchCorners31/32● 4.75 corners/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls31/3212.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 May 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade BrestoisMontpellier
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headStade Brestois — Montpellier
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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