Premier League · 2024Sun, 4 May 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Brentford

LDDWW

4–3Full-time recap

Manchester United

LDLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brentford	Manchester United
Shots	12 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	2.8 xG/match▲	1.56 xG/match
Possession	47%	53%●
Corners	7 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brentford. A second useful context is: Brentford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brentford.

2.77 days▲Rest daysBrentford · Manchester United7 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Brentford	Manchester United	Baseline
Rest days	2.77 days	7 days	—
Matches last 14 days	1 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.77 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.77 goals/match	1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match▲ShotsBrentford · Manchester United13.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Brentford	Manchester United	Baseline
Shots	11.4 shots/match	13.7 shots/match	13.3 shots/match
Shots against	17.1 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Brentford

1Draws

3Manchester United

19 Oct 2024Manchester United — Brentford · Premier League2–1

30 Mar 2024Brentford — Manchester United · Premier League1–1

7 Oct 2023Manchester United — Brentford · Premier League2–1

5 Apr 2023Manchester United — Brentford · Premier League1–0

13 Aug 2022Brentford — Manchester United · Premier League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester United in 5 · 5 too close

1.77 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 35/351.2 goals/match

1.51 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 35/351.46 goals/match

1.56 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 35/351.37 xG/match

1.5 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 35/351.49 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 35/35▲13.7 shots/match

17.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 35/35▲11.1 shots/match

4.71 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 35/354.54 shots/match

5.43 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 35/35▲4.11 shots/match

47.5%Possessionseason · 35/35●53.2%

4.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 35/35●5.23 corners/match

6.46 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 35/35▲4.74 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

8.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3510.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/35▲26%

77%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 35/3563%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford32.5

Manchester United72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford53.3

Manchester United47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford20.8

Manchester United65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford22.5

Manchester United47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford7.5

Manchester United32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford37.5

Manchester United52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford33.8

Manchester United50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brentford35 matchesManchester United35 matches

1.77 goals/match▲Goals scored35/351.2 goals/match

1.51 goals/matchGoals allowed35/351.46 goals/match

1.56 xG/match▲Expected goals35/351.37 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShots35/35▲13.7 shots/match

4.71 shots/matchShots on target35/354.54 shots/match

47.5%Possession35/35●53.2%

4.54 corners/matchCorners35/35●5.23 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.2 fouls/matchFouls35/3510.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brentford18 matchesManchester United18 matches

2.11 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.17 goals/match

1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲1.39 goals/match

1.85 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.26 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShots18/1813.4 shots/match

5.44 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.61 shots/match

50.2%Possession18/18●53.8%

5.06 corners/match●Corners18/185 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.28 fouls/matchFouls18/1810.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.77 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples35 / 35home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 May 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4