Premier League · 2024Tue, 20 May 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester City

WWWWD

3–1Full-time recap

Bournemouth

WDDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Bournemouth
Shots	12 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.54 xG/match▲	1.12 xG/match
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	3 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester City: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.57 xG. Bournemouth: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 1.57 xG · Bournemouth 1.13 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.51 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.51 goals/match	1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.68 corners/match●CornersManchester City · Bournemouth5.97 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Bournemouth	Baseline
Corners	6.68 corners/match	5.97 corners/match	5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.8%●PossessionManchester City · Bournemouth48.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Bournemouth	Baseline
Possession	61.8%	48.2%	49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Manchester City

0Draws

1Bournemouth

2 Nov 2024Bournemouth — Manchester City · Premier League2–1

24 Feb 2024Bournemouth — Manchester City · Premier League0–1

4 Nov 2023Manchester City — Bournemouth · Premier League6–1

25 Feb 2023Bournemouth — Manchester City · Premier League1–4

13 Aug 2022Manchester City — Bournemouth · Premier League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 0 · 5 too close

1.89 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 37/371.51 goals/match

1.19 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 37/371.24 goals/match

1.77 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 37/371.71 xG/match

1.28 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 37/371.32 xG/match

15.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 37/3715 shots/match

9.24 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 37/3712.9 shots/match

5.73 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 37/375.19 shots/match

3.49 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 37/374.65 shots/match

61.8%●Possessionseason · 37/3748.2%

6.68 corners/match●Cornersseason · 37/375.97 corners/match

3.3 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 37/374.95 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

7.62 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3713.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/3722%

84%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 37/3778%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Bournemouth37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City89.2

Bournemouth70.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City90

Bournemouth46.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City47.5

Bournemouth92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City2.5

Bournemouth97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City97.5

Bournemouth67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City68.8

Bournemouth82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City37 matchesBournemouth37 matches

1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored37/371.51 goals/match

1.19 goals/matchGoals allowed37/371.24 goals/match

1.77 xG/matchExpected goals37/371.71 xG/match

15.9 shots/match▲Shots37/3715 shots/match

5.73 shots/match▲Shots on target37/375.19 shots/match

61.8%●Possession37/3748.2%

6.68 corners/match●Corners37/375.97 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.62 fouls/matchFouls37/3713.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City19 matchesBournemouth19 matches

2.26 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.84 goals/match

1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.58 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goals19/191.74 xG/match

16.7 shots/match▲Shots19/1914.1 shots/match

5.95 shots/match▲Shots on target19/195 shots/match

62.5%●Possession19/1948.5%

7 corners/match●Corners19/195.68 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.63 fouls/matchFouls19/1913.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples37 / 37home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 20 May 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4