PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sun, 25 May 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthLeicester City
Shots20 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Expected goals1.62 xG/match▲0.27 xG/match
Possession63%●37%
Corners6 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jordan Ayew · Leicester City · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 51′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 33′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTyler Adams · Bournemouth · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMiloš Kerkez · Bournemouth · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Jebbison · Bournemouth · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJordan Ayew · Leicester City · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlex Scott · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDavid Brooks · Bournemouth · 23′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDavid Brooks · Bournemouth · 45′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 80′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 88′ · 0.08 xG · goalEvanilson · Bournemouth · 55′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 74′ · 0.14 xG · goalAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 55′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedIlya Zabarnyi · Bournemouth · 66′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedOliver Skipp · Leicester City · 7′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedDavid Brooks · Bournemouth · 13′ · 0.21 xG · on targetEvanilson · Bournemouth · 8′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bournemouth: 20 shots, 7 on target, 1.64 xG. Leicester City: 3 shots, 0 on target, 0.27 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 74′Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 1.64 xG · Leicester City 0.27 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Leicester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Leicester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.87 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.87 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bournemouth show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bournemouth's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsBournemouth · Leicester City8.79 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthLeicester CityBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match8.79 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match16.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Bournemouth
0Draws
1Leicester City
Leicester City — Bournemouth · Premier League1–0
Leicester City — Bournemouth · Premier League0–1
Bournemouth — Leicester City · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Leicester City in 0 · 2 too close

1.53 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 38/380.87 goals/match
1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 38/382.11 goals/match
1.7 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 38/380.87 xG/match
1.29 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 38/381.92 xG/match
15.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 38/388.79 shots/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 38/3816.9 shots/match
5.24 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 38/382.92 shots/match
4.53 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 38/385.68 shots/match
48.6%●Possessionseason · 38/3845.3%
5.97 corners/match●Cornersseason · 38/383.66 corners/match
4.84 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 38/386.05 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 38/3811 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 38/388%
79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 38/3855%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth37.5
Leicester City22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth72.5
Leicester City5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth50
Leicester City11.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth92.5
Leicester City7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth97.5
Leicester City42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth67.5
Leicester City2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth82.5
Leicester City13.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth38 matchesLeicester City38 matches
1.53 goals/match▲Goals scored38/380.87 goals/match
1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed38/382.11 goals/match
1.7 xG/match▲Expected goals38/380.87 xG/match
15.2 shots/match▲Shots38/388.79 shots/match
5.24 shots/match▲Shots on target38/382.92 shots/match
48.6%●Possession38/3845.3%
5.97 corners/match●Corners38/383.66 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.8 fouls/matchFouls38/3811 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth19 matchesLeicester City19 matches
1.21 goals/match▲Goals scored19/190.95 goals/match
0.84 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/192.42 goals/match
1.67 xG/match▲Expected goals19/190.84 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shots19/198.37 shots/match
5.47 shots/match▲Shots on target19/192.95 shots/match
48.6%●Possession19/1941.6%
6.26 corners/match●Corners19/193.21 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.1 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.83 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 May 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthLeicester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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