PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

New York City FC 2–3 Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer

2–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Philadelphia Union won 2–3.

Shots
1617
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
2.252.39
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Philadelphia Union beat New York City FC 3–2. Recorded in this match (New York City FC – Philadelphia Union): shots 16–17, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 2.25–2.39, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Philadelphia Union's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match1.47 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

New York City FC have a visible home split

moderate

New York City FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match11.6 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

New York City FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

New York City FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsNew York City FC · Philadelphia Union16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNew York City FCPhiladelphia UnionBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match16.2 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12.2 shots/match9.32 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots17 shotsNew York City FC 16 shots, Philadelphia Union 17 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsNew York City FC 4 shots, Philadelphia Union 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.25 xG2.39 xGNew York City FC 2.25 xG, Philadelphia Union 2.39 xG
  • Possession51%49%New York City FC 51%, Philadelphia Union 49%
  • Corners8 corners4 cornersNew York City FC 8 corners, Philadelphia Union 4 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls21 foulsNew York City FC 15 fouls, Philadelphia Union 21 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards4 cardsNew York City FC 3 cards, Philadelphia Union 4 cards
  • Passes345 passes329 passesNew York City FC 345 passes, Philadelphia Union 329 passes
  • Pass accuracy71.6%75.1%New York City FC 71.6%, Philadelphia Union 75.1%
  • Shots inside box10 shots8 shotsNew York City FC 10 shots, Philadelphia Union 8 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks5 blocksNew York City FC 6 blocks, Philadelphia Union 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves2 savesNew York City FC 2 saves, Philadelphia Union 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside3 offsidesNew York City FC 1 offside, Philadelphia Union 3 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Milan Iloski · Philadelphia Union · 6′ · 0.01 xG · on targetCavan Sullivan · Philadelphia Union · 35′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTayvon Gray · New York City FC · 42′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJames Sands · New York City FC · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Shore · New York City FC · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMilan Iloski · Philadelphia Union · 80′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCavan Sullivan · Philadelphia Union · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAgustin Ojeda · New York City FC · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAgustin Ojeda · New York City FC · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCavan Sullivan · Philadelphia Union · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Bedoya · Philadelphia Union · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKeaton Parks · New York City FC · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTayvon Gray · New York City FC · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCavan Sullivan · Philadelphia Union · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedQuinn Sullivan · Philadelphia Union · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedQuinn Sullivan · Philadelphia Union · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCavan Sullivan · Philadelphia Union · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuighi Hanri · New York City FC · 41′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAndrés Perea · New York City FC · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuighi Hanri · New York City FC · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMilan Iloski · Philadelphia Union · 22′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJames Sands · New York City FC · 54′ · 0.08 xG · on targetCavan Sullivan · Philadelphia Union · 65′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMatthew Freese · New York City FC · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMilan Iloski · Philadelphia Union · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAgustin Ojeda · New York City FC · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJames Sands · New York City FC · 54′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMilan Iloski · Philadelphia Union · 25′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedDanley Jean Jacques · Philadelphia Union · 48′ · 0.28 xG · goalBruno Damiani · Philadelphia Union · 75′ · 0.63 xG · goalBruno Damiani · Philadelphia Union · 69′ · 0.79 xG · goalBénie Traoré · New York City FC · 4′ · 0.82 xG · goalLuighi Hanri · New York City FC · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

New York City FC: 16 shots, 4 on target, 2.30 xG. Philadelphia Union: 17 shots, 5 on target, 2.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Bénie Traoré · New York City FC · 4′Luighi Hanri · New York City FC · 45′Danley Jean Jacques · Philadelphia Union · 48′Bruno Damiani · Philadelphia Union · 69′Bruno Damiani · Philadelphia Union · 75′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: New York City FC 2.30 xG · Philadelphia Union 2.42 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3New York City FC
0Draws
2Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union — New York City FC · Major League Soccer1–2
Philadelphia Union — New York City FC · Major League Soccer0–1
Philadelphia Union — New York City FC · Major League Soccer1–0
New York City FC — Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer1–0
New York City FC — Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer1–5

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: New York City FC favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Philadelphia Union in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

New York City FC19 matchesPhiladelphia Union19 matches
1.74 goals/match ▲Goals scored19/191.47 goals/match
1.42 goals/match ▲Goals allowed19/191.84 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲ 1.71 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots19/19▲ 16.2 shots/match
4.84 shots/matchShots on target19/194.68 shots/match
54.7% ●Possession19/1946.9%
3.42 corners/matchCorners19/19● 6.11 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/53.4 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls19/1915.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 17 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNew York City FCPhiladelphia Union
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headNew York City FC — Philadelphia Union
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required