PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Stadion Woudestein

Excelsior 2–1 PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Excelsior won 2–1.

Shots
139
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.711.18
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Excelsior beat PEC Zwolle 2–1. Recorded in this match (Excelsior – PEC Zwolle): shots 13–9, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.71–1.18, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Excelsior's recent record differs from the season

weak

Excelsior's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots9 shotsExcelsior 13 shots, PEC Zwolle 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsExcelsior 4 shots, PEC Zwolle 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.71 xG1.18 xGExcelsior 1.71 xG, PEC Zwolle 1.18 xG
  • Possession48%52%Excelsior 48%, PEC Zwolle 52%
  • Corners3 corners1 cornerExcelsior 3 corners, PEC Zwolle 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls7 foulsExcelsior 13 fouls, PEC Zwolle 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jan Faberski · PEC Zwolle · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJan Faberski · PEC Zwolle · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJerolldino Bergraaf · Excelsior · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Reiziger · PEC Zwolle · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIlias Bronkhorst · Excelsior · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNick Fichtinger · PEC Zwolle · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 20′ · 0.08 xG · goalIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 78′ · 0.08 xG · goalRyan Thomas · PEC Zwolle · 48′ · 0.09 xG · goalNick Fichtinger · PEC Zwolle · 75′ · 0.09 xG · on targetGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 71′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Reiziger · PEC Zwolle · 83′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 66′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 74′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 19′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 14′ · 0.19 xG · on targetSherel Constancio Floranus · PEC Zwolle · 50′ · 0.19 xG · on targetGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 30′ · 0.20 xG · on targetNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 35′ · 0.55 xG · off target or blockedThijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 4′ · 0.58 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Excelsior: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.72 xG. PEC Zwolle: 9 shots, 3 on target, 1.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Noah Naujoks · Excelsior · 20′Irakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 78′Ryan Thomas · PEC Zwolle · 48′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Excelsior 1.72 xG · PEC Zwolle 1.18 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Excelsior
0Draws
2PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle — Excelsior · Eredivisie2–1
Excelsior — PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie2–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Excelsior favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · PEC Zwolle in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Excelsior16 matchesPEC Zwolle17 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored16/17▲ 1.24 goals/match
1.69 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/172.24 goals/match
1.34 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/171.1 xG/match
12.2 shots/match ▲Shots16/178.53 shots/match
4.31 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/172.94 shots/match
44.4% ●Possession16/1741.8%
4.06 corners/match ●Corners16/172.29 corners/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1710.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsExcelsiorPEC Zwolle
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headExcelsior — PEC Zwolle
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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