PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Mac3Park Stadion

PEC Zwolle 1–0 Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

PEC Zwolle won 1–0.

Shots
811
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.580.72
Possession
35%65%

Full time

What the match recorded

PEC Zwolle beat Fortuna Sittard 1–0. Recorded in this match (PEC Zwolle – Fortuna Sittard): shots 8–11, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.58–0.72, possession 35%–65%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortuna Sittard have a visible away split

moderate

Fortuna Sittard's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match13.5 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Fortuna Sittard's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fortuna Sittard's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.31 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

PEC Zwolle show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

PEC Zwolle's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.5 shots/match ▲ShotsPEC Zwolle · Fortuna Sittard13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPEC ZwolleFortuna SittardBaseline
Shots8.5 shots/match13.5 shots/match14.1 shots/match
Shots against18.5 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots11 shotsPEC Zwolle 8 shots, Fortuna Sittard 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsPEC Zwolle 3 shots, Fortuna Sittard 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.58 xG0.72 xGPEC Zwolle 1.58 xG, Fortuna Sittard 0.72 xG
  • Possession35%65%PEC Zwolle 35%, Fortuna Sittard 65%
  • Corners2 corners12 cornersPEC Zwolle 2 corners, Fortuna Sittard 12 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls13 foulsPEC Zwolle 17 fouls, Fortuna Sittard 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKaj de Rooij · PEC Zwolle · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTristan Gooijer · PEC Zwolle · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 78′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIván Márquez · Fortuna Sittard · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAnselmo Garcia McNulty · PEC Zwolle · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRyan Fosso · Fortuna Sittard · 43′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPaul Gladon · Fortuna Sittard · 61′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 80′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPaul Gladon · Fortuna Sittard · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 64′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedThijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 14′ · 0.10 xG · on targetPaul Gladon · Fortuna Sittard · 76′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJustin Lonwijk · Fortuna Sittard · 18′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedThijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 55′ · 0.42 xG · on targetKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 6′ · 0.87 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

PEC Zwolle: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.52 xG. Fortuna Sittard: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.72 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Koen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 6′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: PEC Zwolle 1.52 xG · Fortuna Sittard 0.72 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4PEC Zwolle
0Draws
1Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard — PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie1–4
PEC Zwolle — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie3–1
Fortuna Sittard — PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie3–1
PEC Zwolle — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie2–0
Fortuna Sittard — PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: PEC Zwolle favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Fortuna Sittard in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

PEC Zwolle16 matchesFortuna Sittard16 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored16/161.31 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲ 1.63 goals/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲ 1.21 xG/match
8.5 shots/matchShots16/16▲ 13.5 shots/match
2.94 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲ 4.56 shots/match
41.1%Possession16/16● 47.9%
2.38 corners/matchCorners16/16● 4.94 corners/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1613.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPEC ZwolleFortuna Sittard
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headPEC Zwolle — Fortuna Sittard
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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