PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Fortuna Sittard 1–3 AFC Ajax · Eredivisie

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

AFC Ajax won 1–3.

Shots
2513
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
2.181.01
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

AFC Ajax beat Fortuna Sittard 3–1. Recorded in this match (Fortuna Sittard – AFC Ajax): shots 25–13, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 2.18–1.01, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortuna Sittard have a visible home split

moderate

Fortuna Sittard's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17 shots/match13.7 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

AFC Ajax's recent record differs from the season

weak

AFC Ajax's last-five shots average is below their season average.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match14.6 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AFC Ajax have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.8%PossessionFortuna Sittard · AFC Ajax● 57.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFortuna SittardAFC AjaxBaseline
Possession46.8%57.7%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots25 shots13 shotsFortuna Sittard 25 shots, AFC Ajax 13 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsFortuna Sittard 7 shots, AFC Ajax 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.18 xG1.01 xGFortuna Sittard 2.18 xG, AFC Ajax 1.01 xG
  • Possession36%64%Fortuna Sittard 36%, AFC Ajax 64%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersFortuna Sittard 4 corners, AFC Ajax 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls9 foulsFortuna Sittard 13 fouls, AFC Ajax 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 62′ · 0.01 xG · on targetDimitris Limnios · Fortuna Sittard · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 8′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 76′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJasper Dahlhaus · Fortuna Sittard · 20′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKo Itakura · AFC Ajax · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOwen Wijndal · AFC Ajax · 52′ · 0.03 xG · goalRyan Fosso · Fortuna Sittard · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÉdouard Michut · Fortuna Sittard · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJasper Dahlhaus · Fortuna Sittard · 37′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJustin Lonwijk · Fortuna Sittard · 85′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIván Márquez · Fortuna Sittard · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOwen Wijndal · AFC Ajax · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 82′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 15′ · 0.07 xG · on targetRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 24′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 59′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 69′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPaul Gladon · Fortuna Sittard · 82′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 24′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax · 39′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedÉdouard Michut · Fortuna Sittard · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 57′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedÉdouard Michut · Fortuna Sittard · 72′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSyb Van Ottele · Fortuna Sittard · 10′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedÉdouard Michut · Fortuna Sittard · 17′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSyb Van Ottele · AFC Ajax · 45′ · 0.10 xG · goalRyan Fosso · AFC Ajax · 47′ · 0.10 xG · goalJustin Lonwijk · Fortuna Sittard · 72′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedWout Weghorst · AFC Ajax · 24′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 67′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedPaul Gladon · Fortuna Sittard · 81′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDimitris Limnios · Fortuna Sittard · 87′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 4′ · 0.18 xG · on targetOscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax · 90′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedKaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 4′ · 0.71 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fortuna Sittard: 25 shots, 7 on target, 2.32 xG. AFC Ajax: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard · 4′Syb Van Ottele · AFC Ajax · 45′Ryan Fosso · AFC Ajax · 47′Owen Wijndal · AFC Ajax · 52′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fortuna Sittard 2.32 xG · AFC Ajax 1.19 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortuna Sittard
2Draws
3AFC Ajax
Fortuna Sittard — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie0–2
AFC Ajax — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie5–0
AFC Ajax — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie2–2
Fortuna Sittard — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie0–0
AFC Ajax — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortuna Sittard favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · AFC Ajax in 8 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortuna Sittard15 matchesAFC Ajax15 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲ 1.87 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 1.33 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲ 1.5 xG/match
13.7 shots/matchShots15/15▲ 14.6 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲ 5.93 shots/match
46.8%Possession15/15● 57.7%
4.47 corners/matchCorners15/15● 5.53 corners/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortuna SittardAFC Ajax
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headFortuna Sittard — AFC Ajax
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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