PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Philips Stadion

PSV Eindhoven 4–3 Heracles · Eredivisie

4–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

PSV Eindhoven won 4–3.

Shots
2111
Shots on target
76
Expected goals
3.222.64
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

PSV Eindhoven beat Heracles Almelo 4–3. Recorded in this match (PSV Eindhoven – Heracles Almelo): shots 21–11, shots on target 7–6, expected goals 3.22–2.64, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Heracles Almelo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Heracles Almelo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

PSV Eindhoven show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

PSV Eindhoven's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.8 shots/match ▲ShotsPSV Eindhoven · Heracles Almelo11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPSV EindhovenHeracles AlmeloBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match11.7 shots/match14.1 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match17.5 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Heracles Almelo have a visible away split

moderate

Heracles Almelo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.78 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.78 shots/match11.7 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots11 shotsPSV Eindhoven 21 shots, Heracles 11 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots6 shotsPSV Eindhoven 7 shots, Heracles 6 shots
  • Expected goals3.22 xG2.64 xGPSV Eindhoven 3.22 xG, Heracles 2.64 xG
  • Possession66%34%PSV Eindhoven 66%, Heracles 34%
  • Corners10 corners4 cornersPSV Eindhoven 10 corners, Heracles 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls7 foulsPSV Eindhoven 12 fouls, Heracles 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Dennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedArmando Obispo · PSV Eindhoven · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnass Salah-Eddine · PSV Eindhoven · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMario Engels · Heracles Almelo · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSergiño Dest · PSV Eindhoven · 2′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBryan Limbombe · Heracles Almelo · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 57′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 70′ · 0.04 xG · goalIvan Mesík · Heracles Almelo · 46′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJerdy Schouten · PSV Eindhoven · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGuus Til · PSV Eindhoven · 65′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 5′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 6′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 23′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlec Van Hoorenbeeck · Heracles Almelo · 85′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 38′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMimeirhel Benita · Heracles Almelo · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 30′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 66′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 30′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMario Engels · Heracles Almelo · 66′ · 0.18 xG · on targetJizz Hornkamp · Heracles Almelo · 66′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedGuus Til · PSV Eindhoven · 81′ · 0.18 xG · goalDennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 51′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedArmando Obispo · PSV Eindhoven · 30′ · 0.32 xG · on targetJizz Hornkamp · Heracles Almelo · 73′ · 0.44 xG · goalLuka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 60′ · 0.64 xG · goalRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 20′ · 0.82 xG · goalIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 32′ · 0.82 xG · goalJizz Hornkamp · Heracles Almelo · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

PSV Eindhoven: 21 shots, 7 on target, 3.26 xG. Heracles Almelo: 11 shots, 6 on target, 2.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Ricardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 20′Ismael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 32′Joey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 70′Guus Til · PSV Eindhoven · 81′Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles Almelo · 45′Luka Kulenović · Heracles Almelo · 60′Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles Almelo · 73′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: PSV Eindhoven 3.26 xG · Heracles Almelo 2.67 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

5PSV Eindhoven
0Draws
0Heracles
PSV Eindhoven — Heracles · Eredivisie4–1
Heracles — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie1–3
PSV Eindhoven — Heracles · Eredivisie2–0
Heracles — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie0–6
PSV Eindhoven — Heracles · Eredivisie3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: PSV Eindhoven favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Heracles in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

PSV Eindhoven16 matchesHeracles16 matches
3.13 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161.63 goals/match
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/162.56 goals/match
1.94 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/161.29 xG/match
17.8 shots/match ▲Shots16/1611.7 shots/match
7.25 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/164.5 shots/match
60% ●Possession16/1643.3%
6.25 corners/match ●Corners16/164.5 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls16/1512.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPSV EindhovenHeracles
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headPSV Eindhoven — Heracles
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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