PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 15:30 UTCFull timeErve AsitoFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHeracles AlmeloSC Heerenveen
Shots8 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.48 xG/match1.76 xG/match▲
Possession42%58%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ajdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 2′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAjdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJacob Trenskow · SC Heerenveen · 6′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBryan Limbombe · Heracles Almelo · 89′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRingo Meerveld · SC Heerenveen · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaas Willemsen · SC Heerenveen · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Linday · SC Heerenveen · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDamon Mirani · Heracles Almelo · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJacob Trenskow · SC Heerenveen · 55′ · 0.04 xG · goalLuuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaxence Rivera · SC Heerenveen · 68′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDylan Vente · SC Heerenveen · 3′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAmourricho van Axel-Dongen · SC Heerenveen · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlec Van Hoorenbeeck · Heracles Almelo · 19′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMario Engels · Heracles Almelo · 16′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJacob Trenskow · SC Heerenveen · 35′ · 0.10 xG · on targetOliver Braude · SC Heerenveen · 3′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMario Engels · Heracles Almelo · 69′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMario Engels · Heracles Almelo · 85′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMaxence Rivera · SC Heerenveen · 68′ · 0.13 xG · on targetVasilios Zagaritis · SC Heerenveen · 77′ · 0.13 xG · goalLuuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen · 32′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMaxence Rivera · SC Heerenveen · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Heracles Almelo: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.49 xG. SC Heerenveen: 15 shots, 8 on target, 1.82 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jacob Trenskow · SC Heerenveen · 55′Vasilios Zagaritis · SC Heerenveen · 77′Maxence Rivera · SC Heerenveen · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Heracles Almelo 0.49 xG · SC Heerenveen 1.82 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Heracles Almelo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: SC Heerenveen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Heracles Almelo have a visible home split

moderate

Heracles Almelo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match11.5 shots/match14.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

SC Heerenveen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

SC Heerenveen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsHeracles Almelo · SC Heerenveen16 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHeracles AlmeloSC HeerenveenBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match16 shots/match14.3 shots/match
Shots against17.4 shots/match10.2 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Heracles Almelo's recent record differs from the season

weak

Heracles Almelo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.53 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Heracles Almelo favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · SC Heerenveen in 11 · 3 too close

1.53 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲1.71 goals/match
2.59 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲1.53 goals/match
1.25 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 17/17▲1.83 xG/match
1.92 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 17/17▲1.2 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲16 shots/match
17.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲10.2 shots/match
4.35 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲5.53 shots/match
6.65 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲4.35 shots/match
43.2%Possessionseason · 17/1751.8%
4.47 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/176.35 corners/match
6.41 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲4.47 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1711.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲12%
65%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Heracles Almelo8.3
SC Heerenveen63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Heracles Almelo32.4
SC Heerenveen65.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Heracles Almelo11.1
SC Heerenveen75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Heracles Almelo25
SC Heerenveen80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Heracles Almelo86.1
SC Heerenveen63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 47%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Heracles Almelo25
SC Heerenveen91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Heracles Almelo40.3
SC Heerenveen70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
1.66 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.78 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲17.4 shots/match
5.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
42.4%Possession5/549.8%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/57.6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.9 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.5 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.79 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.6 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.2 shots/match
44.5%Possession10/1052.6%
5 corners/matchCorners10/106.9 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFouls9/1012.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.53 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.71 goals/match
2.59 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1.53 goals/match
1.25 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲1.83 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots17/17▲16 shots/match
4.35 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲5.53 shots/match
43.2%Possession17/1751.8%
4.47 corners/matchCorners17/176.35 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls16/1711.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 9 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored8/91.56 goals/match
2.63 goals/matchGoals allowed8/9▲1.33 goals/match
1.6 xG/matchExpected goals8/91.56 xG/match
14.5 shots/matchShots8/9▲15.7 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target8/95.78 shots/match
43.3%Possession8/951.9%
4.5 corners/matchCorners8/96.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFouls7/913.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.85 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.18 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHeracles AlmeloSC Heerenveen
CompetitionEredivisie
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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