Eredivisie · 2025Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeStadion de GoffertFull-time recap

NEC Nijmegen

WWWWD

2–2Full-time recap

AFC Ajax

LLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	NEC Nijmegen	AFC Ajax
Shots	15 shots/match	19 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.05 xG/match▲	2.02 xG/match
Possession	39%	61%
Corners	1 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

NEC Nijmegen: 15 shots, 6 on target, 2.25 xG. AFC Ajax: 19 shots, 8 on target, 1.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NEC Nijmegen 2.25 xG · AFC Ajax 1.98 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

NEC Nijmegen favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · AFC Ajax in 3 · 5 too close

2.53 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/171.88 goals/match

1.71 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲1.29 goals/match

1.85 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 17/171.52 xG/match

1.58 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 17/171.5 xG/match

15.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1714.9 shots/match

11.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1714.5 shots/match

6.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/176.12 shots/match

5.12 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲4.82 shots/match

56.8%Possessionseason · 17/1757%

5.35 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/175.47 corners/match

4.35 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/175.06 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1710.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲24%

94%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1794%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

NEC Nijmegen86.1

AFC Ajax91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

NEC Nijmegen80.6

AFC Ajax71.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

NEC Nijmegen52.8

AFC Ajax62.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

NEC Nijmegen47.2

AFC Ajax19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

NEC Nijmegen80.6

AFC Ajax52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 47%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

NEC Nijmegen52.8

AFC Ajax66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

NEC Nijmegen72.2

AFC Ajax63.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

2.12 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.31 xG/match

17.6 shots/match▲Shots5/515 shots/match

8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/56 shots/match

52%Possession5/556.2%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.8 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.5 goals/match

1.62 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.21 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.7 shots/match

6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/105.2 shots/match

54.8%Possession10/1057.2%

5.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls9/109.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches

2.53 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.88 goals/match

1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1.29 goals/match

1.85 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.52 xG/match

15.8 shots/match▲Shots17/1714.9 shots/match

6.88 shots/match▲Shots on target17/176.12 shots/match

56.8%Possession17/1757%

5.35 corners/matchCorners17/175.47 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1710.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches

2.88 goals/match▲Goals scored8/82.13 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.88 goals/match

2.06 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.4 xG/match

15.3 shots/matchShots8/814.8 shots/match

6.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/85.88 shots/match

52.5%Possession8/857.1%

5.38 corners/matchCorners8/85.13 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls7/811.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.23 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples17 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Dec 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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