PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Rat Verlegh Stadion

NAC Breda 0–1 SC Telstar · Eredivisie

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SC Telstar won 0–1.

Shots
1111
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
0.731.48
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Telstar beat NAC Breda 1–0. Recorded in this match (NAC Breda – SC Telstar): shots 11–11, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 0.73–1.48, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.94 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots11 shotsNAC Breda 11 shots, SC Telstar 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsNAC Breda 2 shots, SC Telstar 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.73 xG1.48 xGNAC Breda 0.73 xG, SC Telstar 1.48 xG
  • Possession62%38%NAC Breda 62%, SC Telstar 38%
  • Corners8 corners3 cornersNAC Breda 8 corners, SC Telstar 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls16 foulsNAC Breda 11 fouls, SC Telstar 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Sydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 87′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMilan Zonneveld · SC Telstar · 35′ · 0.02 xG · on targetClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTyrone Owusu · SC Telstar · 65′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDanny Bakker · SC Telstar · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 18′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTyrone Owusu · SC Telstar · 25′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJochem Ritmeester van de Kamp · SC Telstar · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 2′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Brouwer · SC Telstar · 11′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 46′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 53′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 67′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMilan Zonneveld · SC Telstar · 77′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 82′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJochem Ritmeester van de Kamp · SC Telstar · 70′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedEnes Mahmutović · NAC Breda · 53′ · 0.22 xG · on targetMilan Zonneveld · SC Telstar · 66′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Brouwer · SC Telstar · 70′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Brouwer · SC Telstar · 77′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

NAC Breda: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.76 xG. SC Telstar: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.79 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Patrick Brouwer · SC Telstar · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NAC Breda 0.76 xG · SC Telstar 1.79 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: NAC Breda favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · SC Telstar in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

NAC Breda17 matchesSC Telstar17 matches
0.94 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 1.18 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed17/171.59 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲ 1.44 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots17/1713.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲ 4.65 shots/match
49.7% ●Possession17/1743.7%
5.47 corners/match ●Corners17/174.94 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls17/1710.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNAC BredaSC Telstar
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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