PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Rat Verlegh Stadion

NAC Breda 1–1 FC Utrecht · Eredivisie

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

NAC Breda and FC Utrecht drew 1–1.

Shots
1611
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
1.20.66
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

NAC Breda and FC Utrecht drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (NAC Breda – FC Utrecht): shots 16–11, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 1.2–0.66, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots11 shotsNAC Breda 16 shots, FC Utrecht 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsNAC Breda 3 shots, FC Utrecht 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.2 xG0.66 xGNAC Breda 1.2 xG, FC Utrecht 0.66 xG
  • Possession56%44%NAC Breda 56%, FC Utrecht 44%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersNAC Breda 6 corners, FC Utrecht 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls12 foulsNAC Breda 10 fouls, FC Utrecht 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Niklas Vesterlund · FC Utrecht · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDenis Odoi · NAC Breda · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilien Balard · NAC Breda · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNick Viergever · FC Utrecht · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedClint Leemans · NAC Breda · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Ghalidi · NAC Breda · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Ghalidi · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRaul Paula · NAC Breda · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYoann Cathline · FC Utrecht · 67′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRaul Paula · NAC Breda · 20′ · 0.05 xG · goalYoann Cathline · FC Utrecht · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Vesterlund · FC Utrecht · 79′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDani De Wit · FC Utrecht · 26′ · 0.06 xG · goalSébastien Haller · FC Utrecht · 69′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSouffian El Karouani · FC Utrecht · 15′ · 0.07 xG · on targetVictor Jensen · FC Utrecht · 69′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 65′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedVictor Jensen · FC Utrecht · 79′ · 0.10 xG · on targetSébastien Haller · FC Utrecht · 73′ · 0.13 xG · on targetRio Hillen · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 66′ · 0.22 xG · on targetCherrion Valerius · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.35 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

NAC Breda: 16 shots, 3 on target, 1.22 xG. FC Utrecht: 11 shots, 6 on target, 0.69 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Raul Paula · NAC Breda · 20′Dani De Wit · FC Utrecht · 26′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NAC Breda 1.22 xG · FC Utrecht 0.69 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0NAC Breda
0Draws
2FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht — NAC Breda · Eredivisie1–0
NAC Breda — FC Utrecht · Eredivisie1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: NAC Breda favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · FC Utrecht in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

NAC Breda16 matchesFC Utrecht16 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored16/16▲ 1.69 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲ 1.31 goals/match
1.3 xG/matchExpected goals16/161.3 xG/match
13.8 shots/matchShots16/16▲ 14.8 shots/match
4.13 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲ 5.31 shots/match
48.9% ●Possession16/1648.1%
5.31 corners/match ●Corners16/165.19 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNAC BredaFC Utrecht
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headNAC Breda — FC Utrecht
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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