Eredivisie · 2025Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 15:30 UTCFull timeBUKO StadionFull-time recap
22Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSC TelstarNEC Nijmegen
Shots10 shots/match16 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match8 shots/match
Expected goals1.82 xG/match2.34 xG/match
Possession33%67%
Corners5 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Eli Dasa · NEC Nijmegen · 50′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Hamdaoui · SC Telstar · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEli Dasa · NEC Nijmegen · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDarko Nejašmić · NEC Nijmegen · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVirgil Misidjan · NEC Nijmegen · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJeff Hardeveld · SC Telstar · 61′ · 0.03 xG · goalNeville Nwankwo · SC Telstar · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSami Ouaissa · NEC Nijmegen · 6′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKoki Ogawa · NEC Nijmegen · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJochem Ritmeester van de Kamp · SC Telstar · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGuus Offerhaus · SC Telstar · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Hamdaoui · SC Telstar · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDarko Nejašmić · NEC Nijmegen · 2′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen · 14′ · 0.07 xG · on targetTjaronn Chery · NEC Nijmegen · 49′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMilan Zonneveld · SC Telstar · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDeveron Fonville · NEC Nijmegen · 7′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKoki Ogawa · NEC Nijmegen · 37′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJochem Ritmeester van de Kamp · SC Telstar · 67′ · 0.17 xG · on targetKoki Ogawa · NEC Nijmegen · 20′ · 0.18 xG · on targetKento Shiogai · NEC Nijmegen · 89′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedBryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen · 42′ · 0.19 xG · goalBrayann Pereira · NEC Nijmegen · 87′ · 0.34 xG · on targetJeff Hardeveld · SC Telstar · 21′ · 0.66 xG · goalSoufiane Hetli · SC Telstar · 67′ · 0.82 xG · on targetKento Shiogai · NEC Nijmegen · 77′ · 0.85 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Telstar: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.95 xG. NEC Nijmegen: 16 shots, 8 on target, 2.28 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Jeff Hardeveld · SC Telstar · 21′Jeff Hardeveld · SC Telstar · 61′Bryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen · 42′Kento Shiogai · NEC Nijmegen · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Telstar 1.95 xG · NEC Nijmegen 2.28 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: SC Telstar's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: NEC Nijmegen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

SC Telstar's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Telstar's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.8 shots/matchShotsLast 5 · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

NEC Nijmegen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

NEC Nijmegen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/matchShotsSC Telstar · NEC Nijmegen15.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC TelstarNEC NijmegenBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match15.9 shots/match14.1 shots/match
Shots against16.2 shots/match11.3 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

NEC Nijmegen have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.1%PossessionSC Telstar · NEC Nijmegen57.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSC TelstarNEC NijmegenBaseline
Possession44.1%57.9%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

SC Telstar favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · NEC Nijmegen in 10 · 4 too close

1.19 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/162.56 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/161.69 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 16/161.84 xG/match
1.9 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 16/161.55 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1615.9 shots/match
16.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/1611.3 shots/match
4.69 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/166.94 shots/match
6.19 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/164.94 shots/match
44.1%Possessionseason · 16/1657.9%
5.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/165.63 corners/match
6.19 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/164.19 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1512.4 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1619%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1694%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

SC Telstar13.9
NEC Nijmegen91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

SC Telstar33.3
NEC Nijmegen80.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

SC Telstar35.2
NEC Nijmegen59.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

SC Telstar63.9
NEC Nijmegen30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

SC Telstar36.1
NEC Nijmegen80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 47%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

SC Telstar41.7
NEC Nijmegen69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

SC Telstar38.9
NEC Nijmegen76.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/52.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals5/52.01 xG/match
9.8 shots/matchShots5/517.2 shots/match
2.2 shots/matchShots on target5/57.8 shots/match
42.2%Possession5/555.2%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/57.4 corners/match
Cards0/0
8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/102.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
1.54 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.54 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots10/1015.2 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/106.2 shots/match
43.6%Possession10/1055.3%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match
Cards0/0
9.9 fouls/matchFouls10/912.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.19 goals/matchGoals scored16/162.56 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.69 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals16/161.84 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots16/1615.9 shots/match
4.69 shots/matchShots on target16/166.94 shots/match
44.1%Possession16/1657.9%
5.06 corners/matchCorners16/165.63 corners/match
Cards0/0
10.6 fouls/matchFouls16/1512.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.67 goals/matchGoals scored9/92.22 goals/match
2.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
1.89 xG/matchExpected goals9/91.67 xG/match
14.9 shots/matchShots9/916.3 shots/match
5.89 shots/matchShots on target9/97.11 shots/match
45.7%Possession9/960.6%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/95.33 corners/match
Cards0/0
10.3 fouls/matchFouls9/913.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.85 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.08 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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