PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 9 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timePhilips StadionFull-time recap
2–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricPSV EindhovenAtlético Madrid
Shots13 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Expected goals2.67 xG/match▲2.23 xG/match
Possession53%47%
Corners9 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Sergiño Dest · PSV Eindhoven · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMauro Júnior · PSV Eindhoven · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNahuel Molina · Atlético Madrid · 52′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedConor Gallagher · Atlético Madrid · 75′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 42′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 49′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNicolás González · Atlético Madrid · 5′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPablo Barrios · Atlético Madrid · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Sørloth · Atlético Madrid · 44′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPablo Barrios · Atlético Madrid · 36′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPablo Barrios · Atlético Madrid · 36′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Sørloth · Atlético Madrid · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGiuliano Simeone · Atlético Madrid · 66′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedArmando Obispo · PSV Eindhoven · 74′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 17′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Sørloth · Atlético Madrid · 56′ · 0.22 xG · goalAlexander Sørloth · Atlético Madrid · 24′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedDávid Hancko · Atlético Madrid · 52′ · 0.36 xG · goalCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 13′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedArmando Obispo · PSV Eindhoven · 90′ · 0.59 xG · off target or blockedRicardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 85′ · 0.63 xG · goalGuus Til · PSV Eindhoven · 10′ · 0.66 xG · goalJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 37′ · 0.85 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

PSV Eindhoven: 13 shots, 3 on target, 2.65 xG. Atlético Madrid: 15 shots, 9 on target, 2.28 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Guus Til · PSV Eindhoven · 10′Ricardo Pepi · PSV Eindhoven · 85′Julián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 37′Dávid Hancko · Atlético Madrid · 52′Alexander Sørloth · Atlético Madrid · 56′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: PSV Eindhoven 2.65 xG · Atlético Madrid 2.28 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: PSV Eindhoven's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

PSV Eindhoven have a visible home split

weak

PSV Eindhoven's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.2 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.67 corners/match▲CornersPSV Eindhoven · Atlético Madrid6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricPSV EindhovenAtlético MadridBaseline
Corners5.67 corners/match6 corners/match4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Atlético Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Atlético Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsPSV Eindhoven · Atlético Madrid13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPSV EindhovenAtlético MadridBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match13.8 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against17 shots/match13.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

PSV Eindhoven favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 6 · 6 too close

2.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/62.5 goals/match
1.83 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/62 goals/match
1.84 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/61.87 xG/match
2.01 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.76 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲13.8 shots/match
17 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲13.8 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲6.33 shots/match
6.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲4.67 shots/match
54.3%Possessionseason · 6/651%
5.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/66 corners/match
6.83 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲4.67 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/611.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/60%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 6/683%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

PSV Eindhoven75
Atlético Madrid63.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

PSV Eindhoven43.7
Atlético Madrid72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

PSV Eindhoven18.6
Atlético Madrid39.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

PSV Eindhoven13.1
Atlético Madrid48.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

PSV Eindhoven27.4
Atlético Madrid45.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

PSV Eindhoven79.8
Atlético Madrid85.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

PSV Eindhoven36.9
Atlético Madrid64.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
1.7 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.13 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.8 shots/match
52.6%Possession5/552.4%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

6 / 6 matches
2.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/62.5 goals/match
1.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62 goals/match
1.84 xG/matchExpected goals6/61.87 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots6/6▲13.8 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲6.33 shots/match
54.3%Possession6/651%
5.67 corners/matchCorners6/66 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10 fouls/matchFouls6/611.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

6 / 6 matches
2.5 goals/matchGoals scored6/62.5 goals/match
1.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/62 goals/match
1.84 xG/matchExpected goals6/61.87 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots6/6▲13.8 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲6.33 shots/match
54.3%Possession6/651%
5.67 corners/matchCorners6/66 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10 fouls/matchFouls6/611.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
3 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31.67 goals/match
2.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/33 goals/match
2.67 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.17 xG/match
14 shots/match▲Shots3/312 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target3/34.67 shots/match
58.3%Possession3/346.7%
6.67 corners/matchCorners3/35 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.3 fouls/matchFouls3/311.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 10 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsPSV EindhovenAtlético Madrid
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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