PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeSan MamésFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAthletic ClubAtletico Madrid
Shots14 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Possession44%56%
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Athletic Club, Atletico Madrid. A second useful context is: Atletico Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Athletic Club, Atletico Madrid.

3.08 days▲Rest daysAthletic Club · Atletico Madrid4 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAthletic ClubAtletico MadridBaseline
Rest days3.08 days4 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Atletico Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atletico Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.75 goals/match1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atletico Madrid have a visible away split

moderate

Atletico Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match13.1 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Athletic Club favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Atletico Madrid in 7 · 6 too close

0.94 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲1.75 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲0.94 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1613.1 shots/match
9.75 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1610.3 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲5.63 shots/match
3.94 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲2.81 shots/match
48.2%Possessionseason · 16/1654.2%
5.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/167.13 corners/match
4.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲3.38 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/162 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲38%
56%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲94%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Athletic Club47.5
Atletico Madrid77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Athletic Club50
Atletico Madrid77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Athletic Club70
Atletico Madrid89.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Athletic Club72.5
Atletico Madrid52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club48.8
Atletico Madrid23.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club72.5
Atletico Madrid97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Athletic Club64.4
Atletico Madrid67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots5/513.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
41.2%Possession5/556.6%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/59 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots10/1012.7 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.6 shots/match
45.3%Possession10/1051%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/107.3 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
0.94 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.75 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲0.94 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots16/1613.1 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲5.63 shots/match
48.2%Possession16/1654.2%
5.38 corners/matchCorners16/167.13 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards16/162 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored9/81 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/81.13 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots9/810.5 shots/match
4.22 shots/matchShots on target9/84.13 shots/match
50.1%Possession9/852.3%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/85 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCards9/82.25 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls9/812.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAthletic ClubAtletico Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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