PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Wed, 3 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeSan MamésFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAthletic ClubReal Madrid
Shots9 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession38%62%
Corners5 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match4 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Madrid. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Real Madrid.

4.02 days▲Rest daysAthletic Club · Real Madrid2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAthletic ClubReal MadridBaseline
Rest days4.02 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsAthletic Club · Real Madrid19.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAthletic ClubReal MadridBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match19.7 shots/match11.2 shots/match
Shots against9.93 shots/match10.3 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.5%▲PossessionAthletic Club · Real Madrid59.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAthletic ClubReal MadridBaseline
Possession48.5%59.9%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Athletic Club favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 9 · 5 too close

0.93 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲2.13 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/15▲0.87 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/15▲19.7 shots/match
9.93 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/1510.3 shots/match
4.07 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲7.13 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/15▲3.2 shots/match
48.5%Possessionseason · 15/1559.9%
5.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/156.2 corners/match
4.53 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲3.27 corners/match
1.93 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/15▲1.73 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/159.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲47%
53%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Athletic Club47.5
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Athletic Club50.8
Real Madrid92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Athletic Club65
Real Madrid90.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Athletic Club67.5
Real Madrid97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club50
Real Madrid5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club72.5
Real Madrid77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Athletic Club66.2
Real Madrid67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲20 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7 shots/match
42.2%Possession5/558.4%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots10/10▲20.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7.4 shots/match
47.6%Possession10/1059.6%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/106.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
0.93 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲2.13 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲0.87 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots15/15▲19.7 shots/match
4.07 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲7.13 shots/match
48.5%Possession15/1559.9%
5.4 corners/matchCorners15/156.2 corners/match
1.93 cards/matchCards15/151.73 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls15/159.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 9 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored8/9▲2 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/91.11 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots8/9▲19.3 shots/match
4.38 shots/matchShots on target8/9▲6.89 shots/match
50.9%Possession8/958.9%
5.88 corners/matchCorners8/96 corners/match
1.38 cards/matchCards8/91.33 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls8/98.89 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.02 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.92 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 3 Dec 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAthletic ClubReal Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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