PitchMath
La Liga · 2025Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeEstadio MendizorrotzaFull-time recap

Alaves

LWLLL
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAlavesReal Sociedad
Shots14 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession38%62%
Corners5 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls20 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Sociedad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Real Sociedad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Sociedad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

16.3 fouls/match▲FoulsAlaves · Real Sociedad15.5 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAlavesReal SociedadBaseline
Fouls16.3 fouls/match15.5 fouls/match12.6 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Alaves favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Real Sociedad in 6 · 4 too close

0.87 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1.27 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 15/151.47 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/15▲13.7 shots/match
11.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1512.3 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲4.73 shots/match
3.27 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/153.73 shots/match
49.1%Possessionseason · 15/1552.1%
5.27 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/156.47 corners/match
4.4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲4 corners/match
2.53 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/15▲2.33 cards/match
16.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1515.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/157%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Alaves52.5
Real Sociedad67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Alaves33.3
Real Sociedad73.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Alaves80
Real Sociedad47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Alaves42.5
Real Sociedad67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Alaves85
Real Sociedad73.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Alaves62.5
Real Sociedad87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Alaves61.2
Real Sociedad84.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
44.6%Possession5/552.8%
3 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
17.4 fouls/matchFouls5/514.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots10/1012.5 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match
49.4%Possession10/1050.3%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
16.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1015 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
0.87 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.27 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.47 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots15/15▲13.7 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲4.73 shots/match
49.1%Possession15/1552.1%
5.27 corners/matchCorners15/156.47 corners/match
2.53 cards/matchCards15/152.33 cards/match
16.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1515.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots8/8▲13.5 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.75 shots/match
50.5%Possession8/848.8%
5.75 corners/matchCorners8/85.88 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards8/82.63 cards/match
15.8 fouls/matchFouls8/814.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.09 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAlavesReal Sociedad
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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