Serie B · 2026

Juventude vs Náutico · Serie B

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.071.17
Expected goals
1.041.44
Shots
12.317.5
Possession
50%57.5%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: nautico Recife's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Alongside it: nautico Recife's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Nautico Recife's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nautico Recife's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nautico Recife have a visible away split

moderate

Nautico Recife's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

14.1 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season17.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match17.5 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

17 fouls/matchFoulsJuventude · Nautico Recife16.2 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricJuventudeNautico RecifeBaseline
Fouls17 fouls/match16.2 fouls/match14.6 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Juventude favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Náutico in 4 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Juventude29 matchesNáutico29 matches
1.07 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲ 1.17 goals/match
0.66 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/291.24 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals29/27▲ 1.44 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots29/26▲ 17.5 shots/match
4.21 shots/matchShots on target29/26▲ 4.92 shots/match
50%Possession29/26● 57.5%
4.14 corners/matchCorners29/26● 6.15 corners/match
17 fouls/matchFouls29/2616.2 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Juventude
1Draws
0Náutico
Náutico — Juventude · Serie B0–0

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

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