PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Sport Recife vs São Bernardo · Serie B

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.321.38
Expected goals
1.451.05
Shots
14.112.4
Possession
55.1%50.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: sport Recife's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Sport Recife's recent record differs from the season

weak

Sport Recife's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.32 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.32 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sport Recife favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · São Bernardo in 1 · 6 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sport Recife28 matchesSão Bernardo29 matches
1.32 goals/matchGoals scored28/291.38 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed28/291.07 goals/match
1.45 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/291.05 xG/match
14.1 shots/match ▲Shots28/2812.4 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲ 4.5 shots/match
55.1% ●Possession28/2850.1%
4.89 corners/matchCorners28/28● 4.96 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls28/2812.7 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Sport Recife
1Draws
0São Bernardo
São Bernardo — Sport Recife · Serie B0–0

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples28 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness21 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSport RecifeSão Bernardo
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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