PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

São Bernardo 3–1 CRB · Serie B

3–1Full-time analysis

CRB

WLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

São Bernardo won 3–1.

Shots
1226
Shots on target
58
Expected goals
0.561.92
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

São Bernardo beat CRB 3–1. Recorded in this match (São Bernardo – CRB): shots 12–26, shots on target 5–8, expected goals 0.56–1.92, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

CRB show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

CRB's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsSão Bernardo · CRB19.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSão BernardoCRBBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match19.2 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against16 shots/match13 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

CRB's recent record differs from the season

weak

CRB's last-five shots average is above their season average.

23.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season19.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots23.4 shots/match19.2 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots26 shotsSão Bernardo 12 shots, CRB 26 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots8 shotsSão Bernardo 5 shots, CRB 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.56 xG1.92 xGSão Bernardo 0.56 xG, CRB 1.92 xG
  • Possession43%57%São Bernardo 43%, CRB 57%
  • Corners5 corners7 cornersSão Bernardo 5 corners, CRB 7 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsSão Bernardo 11 fouls, CRB 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardSão Bernardo 1 card, CRB 1 card
  • Passes415 passes565 passesSão Bernardo 415 passes, CRB 565 passes
  • Pass accuracy85.3%86.4%São Bernardo 85.3%, CRB 86.4%
  • Shots inside box9 shots15 shotsSão Bernardo 9 shots, CRB 15 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block5 blocksSão Bernardo 1 block, CRB 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves7 saves2 savesSão Bernardo 7 saves, CRB 2 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsideSão Bernardo 3 offsides, CRB 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1São Bernardo
0Draws
0CRB
CRB — São Bernardo · Serie B2–3

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: São Bernardo favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · CRB in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

São Bernardo31 matchesCRB31 matches
1.39 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲ 1.48 goals/match
1.03 goals/match ▲Goals allowed31/311.42 goals/match
1.03 xG/matchExpected goals30/31▲ 1.49 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots29/30▲ 19.2 shots/match
4.52 shots/matchShots on target29/30▲ 6.23 shots/match
49.9%Possession29/30● 51.8%
4.97 corners/matchCorners29/30● 5.3 corners/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls29/3012 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSão BernardoCRB
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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