PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Avaí vs Ceará · Serie B

Avaí

WLLLD
vsPre-match analysis

Ceará

LWLDW

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.041.07
Expected goals
0.961.1
Shots
11.713.8
Possession
46.5%51.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: avaí's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Alongside it: avaí's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Avaí's recent record differs from the season

weak

Avaí's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Avaí have a visible home split

moderate

Avaí's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Avaí favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Ceará in 6 · 5 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Avaí28 matchesCeará29 matches
1.04 goals/matchGoals scored28/291.07 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed28/291.28 goals/match
0.96 xG/matchExpected goals27/29▲ 1.1 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots27/29▲ 13.8 shots/match
3.44 shots/matchShots on target27/29▲ 4.34 shots/match
46.5%Possession27/29● 51.4%
3.89 corners/matchCorners27/29● 5.66 corners/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls27/2914.2 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Avaí
1Draws
3Ceará
Ceará — Avaí · Serie B2–1
Ceará — Avaí · Serie B2–0
Avaí — Ceará · Serie B0–1
Avaí — Ceará · Serie B1–0
Ceará — Avaí · Serie B0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples28 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness18 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAvaíCeará
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headAvaí — Ceará
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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