Fortaleza vs Ceará — Stats & Match Analysis

Serie B · 2026Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC

Fortaleza

DWDWW

vsPre-match analysis

Ceará

LWLWL

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored: 1.111.04
Expected goals: 1.251.12
Shots: 14.513.9
Possession: 48.7%51.6%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fortaleza EC, Ceara. Alongside it: fortaleza EC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fortaleza EC, Ceara.

2.85 days ▲Rest daysFortaleza EC · Ceara2.77 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Fortaleza EC	Ceara	Baseline
Rest days	2.85 days	2.77 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Fortaleza EC have a visible home split

moderate

Fortaleza EC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	17.5 shots/match	14.5 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Fortaleza EC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fortaleza EC's last-five shots average is above their season average.

17 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	17 shots/match	14.5 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Ceará in 0 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza27 matchesCeará27 matches

1.11 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/271.04 goals/match

0.81 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.3 goals/match

1.25 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/271.12 xG/match

14.5 shots/matchShots26/2713.9 shots/match

4.35 shots/matchShots on target26/274.37 shots/match

48.7%Possession26/27● 51.6%

5.58 corners/matchCorners26/27● 5.85 corners/match

14.7 fouls/matchFouls26/2714.5 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Fortaleza

1Draws

3Ceará

17 May 2026Ceará — Fortaleza · Serie B2–1

6 Nov 2025Ceará — Fortaleza · Serie A1–1

13 Jul 2025Fortaleza — Ceará · Serie A0–1

14 Aug 2022Ceará — Fortaleza · Serie A0–1

1 Jun 2022Fortaleza — Ceará · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness3 daysfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match ranking xG per match ranking Shots per match ranking

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Season