PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Ceará 2–1 Sport Recife · Serie B

Ceará

WLLWL
2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Ceará won 2–1.

Shots
1521
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.751.37
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Ceará beat Sport Recife 2–1. Recorded in this match (Ceará – Sport Recife): shots 15–21, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.75–1.37, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Sport Recife's recent record differs from the season

weak

Sport Recife's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots21 shotsCeará 15 shots, Sport Recife 21 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsCeará 4 shots, Sport Recife 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.75 xG1.37 xGCeará 1.75 xG, Sport Recife 1.37 xG
  • Possession40%60%Ceará 40%, Sport Recife 60%
  • Corners9 corners10 cornersCeará 9 corners, Sport Recife 10 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls7 foulsCeará 16 fouls, Sport Recife 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards0 cardsCeará 2 cards, Sport Recife 0 cards
  • Passes288 passes446 passesCeará 288 passes, Sport Recife 446 passes
  • Pass accuracy77.4%83.2%Ceará 77.4%, Sport Recife 83.2%
  • Shots inside box10 shots10 shotsCeará 10 shots, Sport Recife 10 shots
  • Blocked shots7 blocks5 blocksCeará 7 blocks, Sport Recife 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves1 saveCeará 4 saves, Sport Recife 1 save
  • Offsides2 offsides1 offsideCeará 2 offsides, Sport Recife 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Ceará
2Draws
2Sport Recife
Sport Recife — Ceará · Serie B2–0
Sport Recife — Ceará · Serie A1–1
Ceará — Sport Recife · Serie A2–0
Sport Recife — Ceará · Serie B2–1
Ceará — Sport Recife · Serie B0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Ceará favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Sport Recife in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Ceará26 matchesSport Recife26 matches
1.04 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.31 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1 goal/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲ 1.41 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots26/2613.9 shots/match
4.35 shots/matchShots on target26/264.23 shots/match
51.1%Possession26/26● 54.7%
5.81 corners/match ●Corners26/264.88 corners/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls26/2613.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Sept 2026, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCearáSport Recife
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headCeará — Sport Recife
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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