PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Vila Nova FC 4–3 Náutico · Serie B

4–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vila Nova FC won 4–3.

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: nautico Recife's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Nautico Recife's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nautico Recife's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.43 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vila Nova FC favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Náutico in 0 · 8 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vila Nova FC14 matchesNáutico14 matches
1.57 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/141.43 goals/match
1.07 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/141.29 goals/match
1.27 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/31.03 xG/match
14.3 shots/match ▲Shots6/312 shots/match
4.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/33.33 shots/match
54.5% ●Possession6/348.7%
4 corners/match ●Corners6/33 corners/match
14 fouls/matchFouls6/318 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Jun 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVila Nova FCNáutico
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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