PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Novorizontino 2–2 Náutico · Serie B

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Novorizontino and Náutico drew 2–2.

Shots
1912
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
1.751.28
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Novorizontino and Náutico drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Novorizontino – Náutico): shots 19–12, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 1.75–1.28, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Novorizontino.

3.96 days ▲Rest daysNovorizontino · Náutico5.12 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNovorizontinoNáuticoBaseline
Rest days3.96 days5.12 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Náutico's recent record differs from the season

weak

Náutico's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots12 shotsNovorizontino 19 shots, Náutico 12 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsNovorizontino 7 shots, Náutico 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.75 xG1.28 xGNovorizontino 1.75 xG, Náutico 1.28 xG
  • Possession51%49%Novorizontino 51%, Náutico 49%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersNovorizontino 5 corners, Náutico 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls21 foulsNovorizontino 11 fouls, Náutico 21 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Novorizontino favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Náutico in 0 · 7 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Novorizontino13 matchesNáutico13 matches
1.54 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/131.31 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed13/131.08 goals/match
1.78 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/31.03 xG/match
16 shots/match ▲Shots6/312 shots/match
5.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/33.33 shots/match
46.3%Possession6/3● 48.7%
5.83 corners/match ●Corners6/33 corners/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls6/318 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 15 Jun 2026, 02:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNovorizontinoNáutico
CompetitionSerie B
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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