PitchMath
Serie B · 2026

Cuiabá 1–0 Vila Nova FC · Serie B

Cuiabá

DDDWW
1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cuiabá won 1–0.

Shots
710
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
2.040.6
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cuiabá beat Vila Nova FC 1–0. Recorded in this match (Cuiabá – Vila Nova FC): shots 7–10, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 2.04–0.6, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cuiabá's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cuiabá's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.69 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.69 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots10 shotsCuiabá 7 shots, Vila Nova FC 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsCuiabá 4 shots, Vila Nova FC 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.04 xG0.6 xGCuiabá 2.04 xG, Vila Nova FC 0.6 xG
  • Possession51%49%Cuiabá 51%, Vila Nova FC 49%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersCuiabá 5 corners, Vila Nova FC 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls10 foulsCuiabá 12 fouls, Vila Nova FC 10 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Cuiabá
1Draws
0Vila Nova FC
Vila Nova FC — Cuiabá · Serie B2–2
Cuiabá — Vila Nova FC · Serie B1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cuiabá favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Vila Nova FC in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cuiabá13 matchesVila Nova FC13 matches
0.69 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲ 1.38 goals/match
0.38 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/130.92 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals5/61.27 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots5/6▲ 14.3 shots/match
4.6 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/64.33 shots/match
44.6%Possession5/6● 54.5%
4.6 corners/match ●Corners5/64 corners/match
17.8 fouls/matchFouls5/614 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Paired coverage is below the configured metric threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 15 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCuiabáVila Nova FC
CompetitionSerie B
Head-to-headCuiabá — Vila Nova FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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