PitchMath
Primera A · 2026Estadio Departamental Libertad

Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Atlético Nacional · Primera A

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Nacional won 1–2.

Shots
1511
Shots on target
17
Expected goals
0.951.89
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atletico Nacional beat Deportivo Pasto 2–1. Recorded in this match (Deportivo Pasto – Atletico Nacional): shots 15–11, shots on target 1–7, expected goals 0.95–1.89, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Deportivo Pasto's recent record differs from the season

weak

Deportivo Pasto's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atletico Nacional have a visible away split

moderate

Atletico Nacional's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season15.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13 shots/match15.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots11 shotsDeportivo Pasto 15 shots, Atlético Nacional 11 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot7 shotsDeportivo Pasto 1 shot, Atlético Nacional 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.95 xG1.89 xGDeportivo Pasto 0.95 xG, Atlético Nacional 1.89 xG
  • Possession50%50%Deportivo Pasto 50%, Atlético Nacional 50%
  • Corners7 corners2 cornersDeportivo Pasto 7 corners, Atlético Nacional 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls12 foulsDeportivo Pasto 10 fouls, Atlético Nacional 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards6 cardsDeportivo Pasto 3 cards, Atlético Nacional 6 cards
  • Passes311 passes336 passesDeportivo Pasto 311 passes, Atlético Nacional 336 passes
  • Pass accuracy80%77%Deportivo Pasto 80%, Atlético Nacional 77%
  • Shots inside box6 shots6 shotsDeportivo Pasto 6 shots, Atlético Nacional 6 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks1 blockDeportivo Pasto 3 blocks, Atlético Nacional 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves0 savesDeportivo Pasto 4 saves, Atlético Nacional 0 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesDeportivo Pasto 1 offside, Atlético Nacional 2 offsides

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Deportivo Pasto favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Nacional in 8 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Deportivo Pasto14 matchesAtlético Nacional13 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored14/13▲ 2.15 goals/match
1.21 goals/matchGoals allowed14/13▲ 0.77 goals/match
1.45 xG/matchExpected goals9/13▲ 1.69 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots14/13▲ 15.5 shots/match
3.93 shots/matchShots on target14/13▲ 6.38 shots/match
51.1%Possession14/13● 55.8%
3.86 corners/matchCorners14/13● 4.62 corners/match
4.75 cards/matchCards8/54.2 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1311.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples14 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 30 Mar 2026, 03:20 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDeportivo PastoAtlético Nacional
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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